174
FXUS63 KBIS 302055
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
355 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain showers are expected to move across the state
  from central to east. A rumble or two of thunder is possible
  in the James River Valley.

- Windy across southwest North Dakota today and windy Friday.

- Daily chances (low to medium) for rain (and maybe an isolated
  thunderstorm or two) through the rest of the week, with
  temperatures slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Broad troughing continues to slowly progress across the Pacific
Northwest and the Northern Plains. The first system continues
to push across central North Dakota with a cold front extending
from Hebron down to the South Dakota border. A precipitation
axis from Crosby down to Linton continues to lift northeastward.
Stratiform rain will continue to pivot across the central half
of the state. A lack of instability continues which should
prevent thunderstorms across much of the state excluding the
southeast.

A surface low is located over the Bismarck Mandan area will
continue to pivot precipitation northeastward. Stronger winds
are wrapping around the backside of this low impacting the
southwest this afternoon. Winds are forecast to gust up around
30 to 40 mph before diminishing as the boundary layer
strengthens tonight. Critical fire weather concerns did not pan
out this afternoon as much of the southwest received up to
quarter inch of rain or more increasing relative humidity.

Broad troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest with
an upper low parking over the southern Saskatchewan. This will
open the door for a weak ridge to move through the region
Wednesday leading to warmer temperatures. Highs are forecast to
reach the upper 50s to lower 60s east. A shortwave trough is
forecast to dig across the region leading to an increased
precipitation chances by the evening hours. Rain is most likely
across the south central and eastern half of the state while
the northwest still could see up to a quarter inch of rain. Rain
will continue through Thursday as the low wraps up around the
east. On the backside of the upper low cold air advection will
mix stronger winds aloft down to the surface resulting in windy
conditions Friday. Temperatures are forecast to sit in the 10
degree below normal until this weekend.

After the broad trough progresses eastward an upper level ridge
will settle over the region this weekend. Temperatures are
forecast to warm back into the 60s and 70s by Sunday. The upper
level ridge will pass eastward come early next week as the
pattern looks identical to this week. CSU Machine Learning
Program is highlighting severe weather for the southern half of
the state Monday afternoon as a stronger system is forecast to
move through the region. There are some model discrepancies
between the Euro and the GFS so we will see how this plays out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A system continues to moves through the state resulting in rain
across the region. Rain showers will lead to temporary MVFR
conditions this afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon, but confidence is low on location and timing. Winds
are forecast to pick up across the west this afternoon as a
front moves through the region. Skies will begin to clear west
to east this evening as the system pushes eastward with winds
diminishing by sunset.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson