Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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028 FXUS63 KBIS 241432 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 932 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers today, gradually tapering off from west to east. - Winds gusting to 45 mph developing portions of southwest and south central North Dakota including parts of the James River Valley today. - Patchy frost over various parts of the area tonight. - Unsettled weather pattern continues with rain chances over much of the area through Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 928 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The Wind Advisory has been expanded north into Morton and Burleigh. The Bismarck airport has gusted to 46 kts a few time since 8am. This will diminish through the day as the pressure gradient pulls away to the east. Lots of rain reports between 1 and 2 inches coming in from the western part of the state. UPDATE Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Rain showers continue over much of the area, though have slowly been diminishing on the west side, which is right in line with the previous forecast. Minimal changes needed for update. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Current surface analysis places low over south central North Dakota/north central South Dakota, with high over the Northern/Central Rockies. Upper level analysis places low over the western South Dakota/southwest North Dakota. Broad area of rain showers continue over much of the area, though have been tapering off over the far west. A few embedded thunderstorms have also popped up from time to time. Winds continue to be gusty on the north/west side of the low. For today, surface low will shift northeast and deepen while upper features start to stack up. As these slide northeast, widespread rain showers over the area will gradually taper off from west to east as the day goes on. Over southwest North Dakota where winds have already shifted northwest, winds will be on the increase this morning, while over south central North Dakota into the James River Valley, winds will shift through the morning, becoming northwest and increasing mid-day. Forecast soundings for these areas continue to show some ~40-45kt winds mixing down, so have decided to issue a wind advisory through the day over parts of southwest North Dakota, and mid-day through early this evening over parts of south central/James River Valley. Temperatures will be quite chilly for this time of year as notably cooler air wraps into the area, with portions of north central North Dakota only seeing highs in the 40s. As we get into this evening, a secondary wave pushes into the area as the low lifts northeast. This will bring low chances of showers primarily to northern portions of the area overnight, possibly some flakes of snow to the Turtle Mountains area. With that said, for areas that do not see precipitation and skies remain on the clearer side, frost becomes a concern with lows dipping well into the 30s. Will have to give this a close look today and see which areas may need some frost headlines. Mainly quite conditions over most locations for the day on Saturday with temperatures recovering into the 60s, 50s far northeast. The next wave in our active pattern passes mainly to our south Saturday night, with a few showers possibly developing over our southern areas. Late Saturday night into Sunday, next more notable wave approaches and pushes into our area. This will bring likely showers (50-70 percent) to most of our area. More modest shower chances remain over our area on Monday as we remain in cyclonic flow with a brief break coming Monday night through Tuesday as an upper ridge passes over. Unsettled pattern bringing precipitation chances returns for the second half of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions in rain showers will gradually improve through the day into this evening from west to east as the rain showers exit the area. Winds will continue to become northwest and gusty over the area as a low pressure system moves northeast. Winds will diminish this evening. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT /5 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ034-035-041-042-044-045. Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ036-037- 046>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...Smith DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...JJS