Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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427 FXUS63 KBIS 230606 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 106 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers are expected tonight across western and central North Dakota. A stray rumble of thunder is possible. - A low pressure system moves into the region Thursday, bringing chances for strong to severe thunderstorms to portions of the area. Gusty winds, large hail, and one or two tornadoes will be possible, particularly for areas along the ND/SD state line. - Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected over the holiday weekend. - Drier weather and a warm up are in store heading into the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Latest radar imagery shows showers becoming more prevalent along the Highway 2 corridor and also between Highways 85 and 83, though the second area has higher ceilings which may be inhibiting rain from reaching the ground to some extent. The forecast for tonight remains on track. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms across much of southern North Dakota for Thursday afternoon and evening, now along and south of a line from Bowman to Bismarck to Carrington. Forecast details to come in the next AFD issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Visible satellite shows a few clouds moving across the northwestern corner of North Dakota as a surface ridge moves over the center of the state. Winds have slackened west to east over the past few hours as a closed low has lifted to the northeast, over portions of Minnesota, the UP of Michigan, and Canada. Expect light and variable winds to continue for the rest of the afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms have developed across northern Montana and are starting to move toward the Montana/North Dakota state line. There is a 20-50% chance of a few scattered showers and/or weak thunderstorms expected, particularly for the northwestern and north central part of the state this evening and tonight. At this time, severe storms are not expected. Tonight, a shortwave trough will move from the PACNW to the Bighorns. A low pressure system is expected to develop as the system comes over the Black Hills and West River region of South Dakota Thursday afternoon. A warm front is expected to develop over tomorrow, with still some uncertainty as to where it will set up. Locations range from northern South Dakota to central North Dakota. Instability will increase heading into the afternoon, with the warm front in place. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front and within the warm sector, which again brings some uncertainty into which areas may see the best chance for storms and possible severe weather. Any thunderstorms that are able to develop tomorrow in the southeastern part of the area where the warm front will be and a cold front moves through will have the potential of becoming strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area in a Marginal (1/5) to Slight (2/5) Risk for severe storms. The main hazards with any storms will be winds gusting to 60 mph and hail up to ping pong ball size. An isolated tornado or two cannot be entirely ruled out. Overnight, temperatures will fall into the mid-30s in a few locations, bringing a chance of a rain/snow mix to portions of the area. Friday, the low will continue to lift to the northeast, with wrap around moisture expected. Rain chances will continue through the daytime hours and into the evening, eventually ending west to east across the region. Afternoon highs will be slightly warmer than the previous day, at least in the west, climbing into the mid to upper 50s. Heading toward the central part of the state, expect highs in the low to mid-50s. Expect a warm up over the holiday weekend as the are comes under westerly to northwesterly flow. Temperatures will return to the mid to upper 60s for highs and the low to mid-40s for lows. There are some low end chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms Saturday, with a better chance on Sunday (30-50%). The best chances for precipitation will be on Sunday, particularly for the southern half of the state. Memorial Day, a closed low remains in Canada, bringing the possibility for some more wrap around moisture moving into the region. Although chances remain fairly low (20-30%) for showers and storms, this may put a bit of a damper on outdoor holiday or travel plans. An upper ridge moves over the Dakotas heading into mid-week. Dry conditions are expected along with a return of temperatures to the 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 There are multiple aviation hazards this forecast period as a strong low pressure develops southwest of North Dakota. Scattered showers will be possible at all terminals tonight into Thursday morning, but more so across the north. Rain will then become widespread Thursday afternoon and evening, with thunderstorms across the south. Some storms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds as high as 55-60 kts. Significant visibility restrictions can be expected with any thunderstorm, and prevailing MVFR visibility is otherwise possible with showers. Ceilings are forecast to lower to MVFR and eventually IFR levels from north to south late tonight through Thursday afternoon. Northeast winds will increase to 15-20 kts on Thursday, with gusts to 25-30 kts. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Wekesser AVIATION...Hollan