871
FXUS63 KBIS 101952
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
252 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
  evening across northern North Dakota this evening.

- Temperatures will cool down to the 70s for most locations on
  Friday, before warming back up again for the weekend.

- A more active pattern returns for the start of next work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Quasi-zonal flow continues across the Northern Rockies into the
Northern Plains as cold front continues to push into the
northwestern North Dakota this afternoon. The low level thermal
ridge is elongated from the southwest to northeast which has
brought back warm temperatures across the state this afternoon.
Some compressional warming may be enhancing heating across the
central portion of the state this afternoon. Thus, high
temperatures today are forecast to climb into the the upper 80s
to mid 90s. A surface low over the Minot radar is starting to
kick off storms across the northeast with some showers forming
in the Northern James River Valley. Instability slowly is
increasing out across the eastern half of the county warning
area with around 1500-2000 j/kg of MLCAPE, however the effective
shear is under 20 kts. The moderate CAPE will likely lead to
upscale thunderstorm development, but the lack of shear will
keep storms from getting organized in the James River Valley.
However, there is a chance for isolated strong to severe storm
across the Northern half of the state this afternoon and
evening. The CAMs are pegging a clusters of storms moving in
from the southern Saskatchewan into the northern half of the
state tonight with some decent UH tracks. This is definitely
possible as the CAPE across the Northern half of the state is
forecast to remain around 1500-2500 j/kg SBCAPE and around 30-40
kts of effective shear. An upper level trough is forecast to
dig across southern Saskatchewan tonight leading to the
initiation of these storms. The main hazards are ping-pong sized
hail and strong wind gusts up to 60 mph. CAMs have the storms
weakening as they lose instability through the night.

We will see the return of surface smoke from Canadian wildfires.
In the northwest there is already some sites reporting
visibility reductions in Plentywood, MT and Estevan, CA. The
HRRR smoke model pushes smoke in with the front and even more
smoke as the upper low moves through the region. Smoke will
likely cause visibility reductions across the state tonight and
tomorrow.

The aforementioned short wave is forecast to move into North
Dakota late tonight into tomorrow morning. This will likely
bring forth an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms,
severe storms are not anticipated with this system. Showers and
thunderstorms will move out of the area by Friday afternoon as
temperatures cool into the upper 60s north to the lower 80s
southeast. Surface high pressure will settle into the region
leading to clearing skies however smoke may linger.

Weak ridging will amply across Western CONUS this weekend
leading to warming temperatures. Highs are forecast to return
to the mid to upper 80s Saturday and the 90s by Sunday. Warm
temperatures may linger into Monday depending on the timing of a
cold front. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the
region early next week with a broad trough forecast to move
across the region. This will cool temperatures back down into
the 70s through the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conditions will continue across the region today with a low
chance of thunderstorms forming this afternoon and evening. The
models are beginning to agree on a cluster of thunderstorms
moving out of southern Saskatchewan into the northern half of
the state tonight so the prob 30s for KXWA will remain and a
new prob 30 was added to KMOT. There are also some showers
trying to go up in the James River Valley right now (18Z), so
the prob 30 will remain for KJMS as thunderstorms could still
form in the vicinity of the terminal. Winds will switch out of
the north to northwest tonight as a cold front moves through the
region.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson