616
FXUS64 KBMX 151129
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
629 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2024

A convergent zone remains across Central Alabama this morning,
from northwest to southeast. The axis has shifted slightly
westward this morning, with most of the heavier showers now just
west of where the greatest rain accumulations have occurred (since
Saturday morning, 2-5 inches has fallen in a swath from Winston
county to Tallapoosa county). Based on observations at EET,
rainfall rates in heavier showers this morning are around 1-1.5
inches per hour. The current Flood Watch is set to expire at 7am,
and will make a call on whether it will need to be extended in
time closer to that expiration time, as well as which counties can
be cleared from the watch. That decision will depend on whether
the axis continues to shift to areas that have only received
0.50-1.5 inches of rain.

The remnant low of Francine will move back to the west today and
gradually weaken, as a non-tropical low also moving westward from
the Carolina coast toward the central Appalachians. Drier air
wrapping around the north and west side of that low will spread
into portions of north and east Central Alabama tonight and
Monday. The focus for showers will shift to the west and south,
with chances lowering each period.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2024

Drier weather is on the horizon.

Easterly to northeasterly flow builds into the region Monday night
into Tuesday as the non-tropical low off the Atlantic Coast moves
into the Carolinas. This non-tropical low is highlighted by NHC as
having a 50% chance for development before Tuesday. It is expected
to stay well to our east, putting us on the drier - northerly to
northeasterly flow region. As the overall synoptic pattern
transitions to more of a omega blocking pattern Tuesday through
Friday, we should stay in this northerly flow regime. While we may
see some lower chances for rain showers across the south on Tuesday,
the highest rain chances should stay to our south. We`ll then trend
to mostly rain-free conditions through the end of the week and into
the early part of next weekend.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2024

A convergent moisture axis sits northwest to southeast across
Central Alabama, and expect continued scattered to numerous
showers to develop through the day along and west of this
boundary. Cannot rule out a few thunderstorms this afternoon.
Stronger showers/storms will produce heavy rainfall. A mix of
MVFR and IFR cigs start the period and do not expect improvement
in cig heights until after 21Z. MVFR heights could remain at MGM
through the period, as the moisture axis pivots to a more west to
east orientation and remains across the southern portions of the
area.

Easterly winds at 8-10kts will occasionally gust to 22kts today,
as the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Winds will
diminish slightly this evening, but remain at 6-8kts.

NOTE: NIL TAF continues for KANB until further notice due to large
comms issue and missing obs.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire Weather

High rain chances will continue across the area today through early
next week. With the persistent rain, RHs will remain high and soils
have become largely saturated in many locations. Easterly winds will
continue through the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     81  63  84  59 /  30  20  20  10
Anniston    81  65  84  61 /  30  20  20  10
Birmingham  79  66  81  63 /  50  30  20  10
Tuscaloosa  78  67  82  64 /  70  50  40  10
Calera      79  67  82  65 /  60  40  30  10
Auburn      79  66  81  64 /  40  30  30  10
Montgomery  79  68  81  65 /  50  50  40  20
Troy        79  66  79  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-
Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marion-Montgomery-Pike-
Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa-
Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14