023
FXUS64 KBMX 290747
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
247 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2024

The typical summer day with upper 80s to low 90s will be place
again today. However, there should a little more than typical in the
coverage of showers and storms expected. Despite high pressure
aloft, plenty of moisture is abound in the lower levels. This will
help increase coverage once again this afternoon. Instabilities will
generally be between 2000 and 3000 j/kg this afternoon. This
combined with fairly high PWATS should result in scattered to
numerous showers/storms once again today, especially in the
afternoons, with the peak heating and lingering into the early
evening. Storms could be strong withe gusty winds and heavy
downpours at times, but widespread severe conditions appear minimal.
Dewpoints will be a touch higher, but with the added moisture in
place highs will remain under control. However, portions of the
west, especially northwest could see feels like temperatures near or
slightly above 105 today. Therefore, have issued a Heat Advisory
through 9 PM today/tonight for the western counties. Showers and
storms linger into the early evening, then should dissipate in
coverage. In place low clouds and patchy fog will develop.

The heat will increase on Sunday and dewpoints should be even a
degree higher than today. Right now feels like temperatures are
between 104 and 108, so a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for
Sunday as well. Biggest concern though with going ahead and issuing
now will be the shower/storm coverage and how early does it begin. A
few models are indicating the activity beginning as early as 10 AM,
but differ in the location. Given some of this uncertainty will hold
off on a second day for now. Coverage by the afternoon into the
evening should be fairly high once again for late June.  Look for
highs in the low to middle 90s.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2024

Key message:

- After a brief respite from the humidity Monday for all but far
  southern portions of Central Alabama, heat indices will increase
  through the week with values near or above 105 degrees
  including on Independence Day.

Strong subtropical ridge will be centered over the ArkLaTex Sunday
night and Monday, with northerly to northwesterly flow aloft over
Central Alabama. Scattered showers and storms will be ongoing
Sunday evening along a pre-frontal trough. A much drier air mass
will move in on Monday. Have lowered PoPs below NBM and further
reductions may be necessary. Heat indices will remain near 105
across the south, but lower humidity levels are expected across
the north though the dry air mass will warm efficiently. The
subtropical ridge will move eastward over the area Monday night
through Tuesday night. The lower dew points will be short-lived as
higher dew points return from the east late Monday night in
advance of a back door wedge front building down the East Coast.
Increasing moisture with southeasterly flow and convergence along
the wedge front will result in chances for isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms returning. Lower highs will occur on
Tuesday in the far eastern counties with the wedge while
temperatures remain warm in the west where a few spots could see
heat indices reaching 105. Ridging builds aloft Wednesday and
Thursday, with some model disagreement on whether a weakness
begins to develop by Friday. A tropical-like air mass will result
in mainly widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and
storms. Increasing temperatures and dew points will result in
increasing heat indices near or above 105 each day.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2024

Overnight, ceiling and visibility forecast will be based on
persistence and heavier rain locations from Friday. This will
place the lowest ceilings, and lowest visibility, at EET and MGM.
It appears now based on trends that most if not all sites will
drop to IFR ceilings by daybreak. Any stratus and fog that does
form overnight should lift and mix out by around 15Z. Rinse and
repeat in the afternoon, with more scattered to numerous
convection in the heat of the afternoon and into the early evening.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A humid air mass will remain in place over the weekend with
scattered to numerous showers and storms. A drier air mass
temporarily moves in on Monday with RH values in the 35 to 45
percent range across the northern half of Central Alabama. Winds
generally remain light throughout the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  71  96  70 /  70  30  70  20
Anniston    90  74  93  73 /  70  30  70  30
Birmingham  91  75  96  73 /  70  30  70  20
Tuscaloosa  92  75  96  73 /  70  50  70  30
Calera      92  76  95  74 /  70  40  70  30
Auburn      89  75  92  75 /  70  30  70  30
Montgomery  91  74  94  74 /  70  30  70  30
Troy        90  73  93  73 /  70  30  70  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for the
following counties: Fayette-Greene-Lamar-Marion-Pickens-Sumter-
Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....32/Davis
AVIATION...16