848
FXUS64 KBMX 280835
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
335 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2024

The next two days will feel a little bit more like a typical summer
day with upper 80s to low 90s each day. However, there should a
little more than typical in the coverage of showers and storms
expected. A low pressure system is currently near Jackson,
Mississippi this morning and will slowly move northwest then north
into the weekend. This low will help to feed moisture into the area
and help increase coverage each afternoon. Instabilities will
generally be between 2000 and 3000 j/kg each day with Saturday
potentially a touch higher. This combined with fairly high PWATS
should result in scattered to numerous showers/storms each day,
especially in the afternoons, with the peak heating. Storms could be
strong withe gusty winds and heavy downpours at times, but
widespread severe conditions appear minimal at this time. Dewpoints
will be a touch higher, but with the added moisture in place highs
will remain under control with generally just isolated areas hitting
105 heat index each day. Therefore will not issue any heat
advisories for today or Saturday.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2024

Key messages:

- Dangerous heat remains in the forecast for Sunday, dependent
  upon daytime heating occurring before showers and storms
  develop/arrive Sunday afternoon and evening. Heat indices
  between 105 and 110 degrees are currently forecast, and a Heat
  Advisory will likely be needed. Highest rain chances will also
  exist Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening as a cold front
  approaches from the north.

- A multi-day heat wave is still anticipated through much of next
  week, starting Tuesday and lasting through at least the end of
  the week. Heat indices are forecast at or above 105 degrees in
  many locations next Wednesday through Friday.

The 500mb ridge over Texas will continue to strengthen to 598
decameters, but retrograde slightly to the west on Sunday. This
will place Central Alabama within almost northerly flow aloft. The
upper level shortwave trough moving through the Great Lakes states
appears to be a bit more potent on guidance this morning, which
will help to push the surface cold front well into the Deep South.
As the front approaches, we`ll see low level moisture pooling out
ahead of the front with high PWATs in combination with strong
surface heating. As a result, dangerous heat will remain in the
forecast with temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s between
11am and 2pm. Heat indices could rise between 105 and 110 degrees
as dewpoints stay in the low to mid 70s. A Heat Advisory will be
needed if current forecast trends hold up. With the surface front
approaching from the north and a weak 500mb vort max moving in
from the northwest, scattered to numerous showers and storms are
expected to develop Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. We`ll
have to see how soon some of the convection is allowed to
develop, as it may temper high temps a bit. In addition, a more
organized convective cluster of storms may develop and dive
southward through the day.

We can certainly hope that coverage of showers and storms will be
fairly widespread on Sunday to help with the dry conditions, as
significant rain chances aren`t expected through much of next
week with heat building once again. Model consensus is in good
agreement with the cold front moving at least as far south as the
U.S. 80/I-85 corridors by Monday afternoon, and potentially
farther south than that. Drier air is expected to advect southward
both at the surface and aloft, giving us a temporary reprieve from
the worst heat indices. We still could hit Heat Advisory criteria
in our far southern counties with scattered showers and storms
developing south of the front.

The 500mb ridge will build in across the Southeast through
Thursday, keeping high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s each
day. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible
during the peak heating of the day mainly in the east and
southeast on Tuesday. As southeasterly to southerly low level flow
picks back up on Wednesday, scattered convection is expected
areawide during the peak heating of the day through the end of the
week.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2024

Most of the rain has dissipated tonight and should remain that way
at least at the TAF sites. We will likely see some MVFR clouds
build in and perhaps some IFR right at sunrise. Confidence in the
MVFR is higher so will go that route through 15z. Showers and
storms will likely develop after 17z so added in a prob30 at all
sites. MGM may develop a little later and last a little longer so
adjusted for that trend.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will remain in the
forecast today, with the best coverage across the southern half
of Central Alabama. Rain chances increase for Saturday and Sunday,
as minimum RH values remain in the 50 to 60 percent range during
the afternoon. Southerly 20ft winds today become westerly
Saturday, and eventually northwesterly Sunday, but remaining light
between 5 and 10mph overall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  71  92  72 /  50  30  70  20
Anniston    91  73  91  75 /  50  30  70  30
Birmingham  92  74  92  75 /  50  30  70  20
Tuscaloosa  92  74  92  75 /  50  30  70  20
Calera      93  74  92  76 /  50  30  70  30
Auburn      89  73  89  75 /  70  30  70  30
Montgomery  91  73  92  74 /  70  30  70  30
Troy        91  72  92  73 /  70  30  70  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....56/GDG
AVIATION...16