464
FXUS64 KBMX 220821
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
321 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 108 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2024

High pressure remains in control today so any showers that develop
to our west should dissipate as they work into our northwest.
Cannot rule out a few sprinkles in Marion, Winston, Lamar, or
Fayette counties so included a 10 percent chance here. Not
expecting anything measurable though. Look for scattered fair
weather cumulus this afternoon. Tonight, the ridge will slide ever
so slowly to the east and the clouds and rain will begin to make
some southeastward progress. With that said though the areas that
may see rain before sunrise Thursday will generally be the
northwestern 5 counties. This trend continues on Thursday across
the north as the front makes barely any movement south. Generally
the best areas for isolated to scattered showers/storms will be
the northwest once again. A shower/storm could approach the north
side of the Birmingham metro, but most of the activity will remain
north. Highs each day will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2024

A southern stream shortwave remains forecast to move across the
Tennessee Valley Friday morning. This will likely be accompanied
by a weakening thunderstorm complex to our north, so chances for
showers/storms remain in the forecast for our northern half. The
perturbation is progged to advance into the Appalachians mid to
late morning. Thus, convective coverage during the afternoon may
not be too high considering the background effects of the low-
amplitude ridge in the region.

Latest guidance suggests the ridge sill strengthen a bit on
Saturday, though both moisture & instability values climb ahead of
a stalling cold front laying over to our north. Forecast
soundings from the GFS/ECMWF both show modest mid-level lapse
rates with ~30 kts eff. bulk shear. MLCAPE of 2,000-3,000 J/kg is
progged with dewpoints in the low 70s. Thus, any convective
development during the afternoon could be strong, and we`ll need
to keep an eye out for severe weather once mesoscale details can
be sorted out.

Subsequent disturbances will impacts regions to our northwest on
Sunday, with a notable system moving from the Plains toward the
Midwest. Meanwhile, we`ll remain hot/humid with at least a
scattering of showers/storms across the northern half of Central
Alabama. There`s disagreement on timing, but medium-range guidance
depicts stormy weather associated with a frontal passage in our
area Monday/Tuesday. Cooler, more stable weather would follow.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2024

All sites should remain VFR through the period, with passing mid and
high clouds through the period. Light surface winds overnight
will rebound to 5-8 kts during the day with scattered coverage of
fair weather cumulus developing by midday. Additional high clouds
will build in after 00z from west to east.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High pressure will be in control through Thursday. Min RH values
this afternoon and Thursday 45 to 50 percent. 20 foot winds will
be generally 4 to 6 mph from the south. Max RH levels tonight will
be above 90 percent. Next chance for wetting rain Thursday night
across the northwest, with chances for rain across the northern
counties on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  66  89  65 /  10  10  20  20
Anniston    89  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
Birmingham  90  70  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  90  69  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
Calera      88  68  88  68 /  10  10  10  10
Auburn      86  68  86  68 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  90  68  89  69 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        89  67  89  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....40/Sizemore
AVIATION...16