Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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284 FXUS64 KBMX 250831 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 331 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024 Remnants of a decaying MCS over western TN and northern MS will track into western Alabama early this morning. Most of the lightning activity has dissipated over northern MS. Earlier hi-res model runs had showed a line of convection moving southeast through north Alabama this morning, but the latest model runs now show very little activity across central Alabama through the morning. There may be window this afternoon once high clouds dissipate and daytime heating activates scattered thunderstorms, but areal coverage of storms looks low. Any storm that develops this afternoon will have the potential to become briefly severe with damaging winds and large hail. For tonight and Sunday, upper heights increase over Alabama as a short wave trough moves through the Midwest states. This should suppress convection across central Alabama, and will remove severe wording for Sunday. Increasing low level southwest flow and upper height rises on Sunday will produce very warm afternoon temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. 58/rose && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024 The main upper level trough is expected to slide through the region late Sunday night through the overnight hours into Monday. This upper wave will provide the forcing for showers and thunderstorms across Central AL. There will be enough instability in place, along with modest deep layer shear to support a few strong to severe storms overnight Sunday night into Monday. After the initial upper wave moves through, guidance suggests the surface boundary could trigger additional convection during the afternoon/evening hours on Monday as it moves through. Drier conditions expected Tuesday through Friday as the main trough remains to our east and broad ridging sets up to our west. Some guidance tries to bring a few waves down in this northwesterly flow, but this hasn`t been consistent. Most guidance shows the ridging winning out leading to mostly dry conditions for much of the upcoming week. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024 VFR conds thru 11Z with mainly mid to high level clouds and light winds. MVFR cigs will develop around 12Z at most TAF sites with IFR cigs likely at KTOI between 10Z and 13Z. Cigs will rise above 3000 ft agl by 16Z. Sct tstms will develop across west-central Alabama by 13Z and track southeast. Included PROB30 groups at all TAF sites. TSTM activity should dissipate by 01Z. 58/rose && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected during the afternoon and evening hours today and again late Sunday night through Monday. 20 foot winds will be from the south to southwest at less than 5 mph today, increasing to 6-12mph on Sunday. Min RH value will be near or above 45 percent through Monday, with overnight recoveries near 100%. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 87 68 89 68 / 40 20 20 40 Anniston 86 70 89 70 / 40 20 10 30 Birmingham 88 71 91 71 / 40 20 10 40 Tuscaloosa 89 72 92 72 / 40 20 0 40 Calera 87 71 91 71 / 40 20 0 30 Auburn 85 71 87 70 / 30 20 0 10 Montgomery 89 71 92 72 / 30 20 0 10 Troy 89 70 91 72 / 30 20 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...58/rose LONG TERM....25/Owen AVIATION...58