247
FXUS65 KBOI 250235
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
835 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.DISCUSSION...Mild temperatures under clear skies with light
winds tonight. Hotter temperatures will return Tuesday as an
upper level ridge builds overhead, accompanied by southwest flow
aloft. Lower valleys will reach the upper 90s to near 100
degrees. Mid to upper level moisture will increase from the
south late Tuesday bringing increasing clouds. The increasing
moisture will lead to a threat of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night into Wednesday as a shortwave trough approaches.
This is all handled by the current forecast and no updates this
evening.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with clear skies tonight. Increasing mid to high
clouds from the south Tuesday afternoon. Reduced visibilities
from smoke near a fire in far SW Idaho. Hot temperatures on
Tuesday will result in high density altitudes. Surface winds:
variable 10 kt or less overnight, becoming SW-NW 5-15 kt Tuesday
afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR with clear skies. Increasing high clouds Tuesday
afternoon. Surface winds: variable 6 kt or less overnight,
becoming NW 5-10 kt Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...A dry west-
southwest flow aloft through Tuesday (accompanied by dry
condition) transitions to a moist southwesterly flow Tuesday
night through Wednesday. Initially, moisture arrives in the mid
and upper levels, but translates to the lower levels on
Wednesday as the precipitable water peaks at around 1 inch
which is around the 95th percentile. The convective threat
increases with the increase in moisture as any thunderstorms
would be high-based Tuesday night through early Wednesday, with
the potential for heavy rain with the thunderstorms by Wednesday
afternoon. Shower/thunderstorm chances will be generally less
than 30 percent with the best chances over the higher
elevations. Gusty winds develop during the afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front that is associated with a trough over
the PacNW. The front moves through Tuesday night, followed by
drier/stable conditions into Wednesday. Much-above normal
temperatures continue both days with highs around 10 degrees
above normal.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Cooler temperatures (near
seasonal normals) follow the passage of the midweek cold front
Thursday through Friday. Breezy northwest winds are anticipated
on Thursday with lighter winds on Friday. Showers chances will
be confined to the far north (West Central ID Mountains) on
Thursday with dry conditions area-wide on Friday. The cooler
northwest flow becomes southwesterly on Saturday bringing a
return to above-normal temperatures. Models remain in good
agreement with the arrival of the next Pacific trough early next
week for a slight cooling trend and a 15-30 percent chance of
showers, mainly over the higher elevations.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...ST
AVIATION.....ST
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW