Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
598 FXUS65 KBOI 172120 CCA AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Boise ID 208 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...The core of the upper low was supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly over SW Idaho. The thunderstorms will be accompanied by gusty winds to 40 mph and small hail or graupel. Snow showers at higher elevations could result in localized light snow amounts, mainly above 6000 feet. The convection decreases in coverage and intensity later this evening as the low moves east. Windy conditions this afternoon (gusting to near 45 mph in s-central Idaho) gradually subside this evening. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Western Magic Valley until 7 PM MDT this evening. A weak upper trough on Tuesday could result in another round of showers in Baker County and central Idaho Tuesday afternoon. Instability is marginal once again, but enough to warrant a slight chance (less than 20 percent) of thunderstorms in central Idaho. The trough moves northeast Tuesday evening, ending the convection. A dry and stable southwest flow aloft develops on Wednesday. Temperatures trend 10-15 degrees warmer on Tuesday and an additional 5-10 degrees warmer on Wednesday. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Dry conditions and a warming trend are favored by all the model guidance into the weekend due to a general southwest flow aloft. There is high confidence that valley highs will in the 90s by the weekend. Some of the ensemble members show slightly cooler temperature on Monday as an upper trough moves through the Pacific Northwest, although confidence is low. && .AVIATION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will taper off this evening. Generally VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions in rain and snow showers. Mountains obscured. Snow levels 4500-6000 ft MSL. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt, except gusts 30-40 kt near the Magic Valley terminals, becoming variable 12 kt or less by 04Z/Tue. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 20-35 kt. KBOI...Scattered showers and temporary MVFR ceilings at the terminal thru 00Z/Tue. Showers have around a 10% chance of developing into thunderstorms this afternoon in the vicinity of the terminal. Showers continuing in the vicinity until 03Z/Tue, becoming mostly clear overnight. Surface winds: NW 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt, becoming variable 6 kt or less by 04Z/Tue. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening IDZ016. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM....BW AVIATION.....ST