280
FXUS65 KBOI 292001
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
201 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...An upper level
trough centered over our area is moving eastward, resulting in
breezy conditions this afternoon/evening and a few showers over
northern Valley County. Gusts between Mountain Home and the
Magic Valley are roughly between 30-45 mph, while elsewhere in
the Snake Plain gusts will be around 20-30 mph. There is a small
chance (10-15%) of lightning in the showers in Valley County,
so strikes are likely to be isolated occurrences if any. Showers
will dissipate around midnight, and that will be the last of
precipitation in the short term. As the trough gives way to a
ridge, dry air settles in and skies are set to be mostly clear.
Temperatures are around 10 degrees below normal today/Thursday,
and rise to about normal on Friday.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Models are continuing
to agree on the progression of large scale features. On
Saturday the first of two troughs moves into our area, bringing
just a 15-30% chance of showers across NE Oregon and central
Idaho. Conditions will be breezy Saturday afternoon as the
trough drags a weak cold front through. Sunday will be partly
cloudy and a little breezy in the Magic Valley before the next
trough moves in on Monday. This trough is the stronger of the
two mentioned, and brings in much more moisture. These
charactistics have lead to a steady increase in precipitation
potential on Monday. Precipitation chances in the south near
Rome/Twin Falls are roughly 30%, and increase uniformly to the
north near Baker City/McCall where chances are 70-80%. Monday
will be mostly cloudy and the best chance for rain is forecast
to be around noon. This will limit convective potential in the
afternoon somewhat, but summertime temperatures and unsettled
conditions still support a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms. This
trough brings another cold front, supporting continued breezy
conditions. Temperatures in the long term trend a little lower
each day with the progressive fronts, dropping from 5 degrees
above normal on Saturday to 5 degrees below normal by Tuesday.
However, models still show high pressure building in late next
week. While the position and strength vary, there will be a
significant warm up on Wednesday back to 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and generally dry today. Isolated showers north
and east of KMYL continue until Thu/03z, with a 10-15% chance
of lightning in the same limited area. Surface winds: NW 10-20
kt with gusts to around 30 kt. 10k ft MSL winds: W-NW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR under scattered mid level clouds. Winds remain out
of the NW around 12-15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM