126
FXUS65 KBOI 191525
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
925 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.DISCUSSION...Continuing a relatively mundane forecast with no
updates this morning. Showers this afternoon mostly south of the
ID-NV border, outside of our area. There is some indication that
an isolated shower could form over and east of the Boise Mtns,
though chances are less than 10%. The two features of interest
are a trough north of our area on Sunday and a ridge building
in after it early next week. Models are suggesting the trough
will be too far north to raise winds or alter temps, though it
wouldn`t take too much movement in the forecast track to change
that. The ridge after the trough is depicted in most
deterministic models and is looking to warm us up to 5-10
degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Patchy fog in mtn valleys through 16Z this
morning. Showers south of the ID-NV border this afternoon. Surface
winds: less than 10kt. Winds at 10kft: variable 5-10 kt.

KBOI...VFR and partly cloudy. Surface winds less than 10 kt.

Weekend Outlook...VFR with periods of high clouds. Afternoon
surface winds W-NW 5 to 15 kt. NW gusts up to 25 kt Friday
evening in the lower Snake Plain. Winds aloft W-NW 10 to 20 kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...We`ll start of a
prolonged stretch of dry weather under light flow aloft. A
closed low working through the Desert SW will support afternoon
clouds and possibly a shower along the ID/NV border today,
otherwise mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures will
prevail into the weekend. An uptick in W-NW flow aloft Friday
and Saturday will bring increased winds to open terrain (gusts
to 20 mph in spots) each afternoon.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...The dry conditions
continue into next week. Monday starts off with more cloud cover
as a passing trough digs towards the Four Corners. Models are
in agreement that the Intermountain NW will warm up through mid-
week in response to a building upper ridge. This will push
temperatures above normal as lower elevations reach the low 80s.
Agreement in the 00Z operational models falls off beyond
Wednesday with the ensemble mean favoring a continuation of warm
and dry weather under a ridge of high pressure.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DG