Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
731 FXUS65 KBOI 151555 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 955 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .DISCUSSION...Today will be cooler and breezy as an upper level trough moves by to our north. Highs will be 5-10 degrees below normal, or in the low to mid 70s in the lower valleys. A strong pressure gradient will support breezy winds today, with most areas seeing gusts 20-35 mph. However, stronger gusts 35-45 mph are expected near Mountain Home east into the Magic Valley and Camas Prairie. Isolated showers will develop along and north of a Baker City to McCall line today, closer to the center of the upper trough. Elsewhere, it should remain dry. Forecast remains on track and no updates anticipated this morning. && .AVIATION...VFR with mid and high level clouds. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt increasing to 15-25 kt with gusts to 35 kt by Sat/18Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW-W 15-30 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Sunday Outlook...VFR. Mid and high clouds with a 15-30 percent chance of rain/snow showers in SE Oregon and w-central Idaho mountains Sunday night. Snow levels falling to 5500-6500 ft MSL when precipitation chances increase. Surface winds on W-NW 5-15 kt with afternoon gusts to 15-25 kt. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...A dry cold front has moved through the area this morning, with high temperatures today around 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday. An unseasonably cool upper level trough over southwest Canada will strengthen the pressure gradient today and Sunday, with breezy northwest winds during the afternoon both days, with local gusts up to 45 mph. Showers will generally stay north of the area on Saturday and Sunday. The trough over the Pacific NW will begin to move southeastward on Sunday night with a chance of showers (20-50% percent chance) developing along a cold front. The front will move through on Monday with an additional 3-5 degrees of cooling. Temperatures will be around 15-20 degrees below normal Monday, with breezy northwest winds continuing. Snow levels on Monday will be around 5500 feet in the morning rising to 6500 feet by the afternoon. LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...As an upper low moves east of the area, a few weak showers may linger in the West Central Mtns Tuesday morning. However, the best chance for precipitation will have passed at that point, and chances of precipitation stay fairly low throughout the long term. The only exception to this will be during afternoon convection in the West Central Mountains. A weak upper trough with its axis just east of the West Coast remains stalled through the period. The dynamics of the trough and afternoon heating will create unsettled conditions in the West Central Mtns. Each afternoon/evening a 10-20% chance of showers and storms exists in this area. The rest of our CWA will remain mostly dry. The stalled trough keeps us under consistent southwesterly flow, warming us from 10 degrees below normal on Tuesday to 10 degrees above normal on Saturday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...ST AVIATION.....BW SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....JM