Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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138 FXUS64 KBRO 221100 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 600 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Key Messages: - There is a 50% chance of tropical cyclone development near the Bay of Campeche over the next 48 hours and beyond. - Minor coastal flooding will be possible due to elevated seas and tides, and a high risk of rip currents will continue today. Deep South Texas will remain in an unsettled weather pattern through the short term period as an area of low pressure translates west over the Bay of Campeche toward Southeast Mexico. Pulses of moisture will move north as mostly moderate, intermittent showers and thunderstorms, supporting higher rain chances for the RGV and deep South Texas. Rain amounts for today and Sunday could reach an inch or more for some areas. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level ridge centered over the Southeast United States will shift west to over Texas. High pressure, too, will build over East Texas and the Northwest Gulf. It remains to be seen whether the ridging and high pressure, or the Southwest Gulf low pressure will gain the upper hand transitioning beyond the short term. However, right now there is a humidity gradient between subsident air to the north and more moist, tropical air over portions of deep South Texas. This humidity line is forecast to shift north as tropical moisture deepens locally. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Otherwise, the combination of increased cloud cover and rain chances will result in near to slightly below normal temperatures for mid June, with high temps ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures region wide will be mostly in the middle 70s. Look for mostly cloudy skies and light to moderate northeast to east winds. Hazards: There is a high rip current risk for today and tonight, possibly lowering to a moderate risk on Sunday. While beach and coast conditions are not ideal, they are slowly improving. Nonetheless, some beach runup may occur through high tide around 8:09 AM today. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Lingering tropical moisture could support some showers and thunderstorms into the day Monday. Additional impacts are possible depending on how the tropical disturbance evolves this weekend. Through the remainder of the week, upper level ridging and sustained southeasterly surface flow will likely support warmer temperatures and lower rain chances. Some isolated sea breeze convection could occur during the afternoons from Tuesday to Friday. The best chances for rain with the seabreeze activity would likely be along and east of I-69C. Increasing temperatures and dewpoints through the week will lead to higher heat index values, potentially requiring heat advisories for the later half of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Currently, all aerodromes are experiencing scattered to broken VFR conditions with light rain at KBRO and KMFE and vicinity showers at KHRL. On and off shower activity is expected throughout the morning as clusters of light to moderate, heavy at times, bands continue to move onshore from east to west with light easterly winds. Following sunrise, deeper and more convective thundershowers with breezier conditions are possible with ceilings lowering into MVFR category and persisting through the remainder of the TAF period. Following sunset, winds will settle along with showers and potentially thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Today through Sunday...Moderate east winds and elevated seas will prevail through the period and result in Small Craft Exercise Caution to low end Small Craft Advisory conditions. An unstable tropical air mass to the south will support scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. The NHC currently has a 50% chance of tropical development near the Bay of Campeche over the next 48 hours, which could ultimately result in higher winds and seas than currently forecast. Sunday night through Friday...Conditions at the start of the long term period will likely depend on what happens with the tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche this weekend. Some adverse conditions necessitating Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines may be possible on Monday. The remainder of the period looks more favorable, with light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate seas returning for the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 87 79 90 79 / 90 90 90 50 HARLINGEN 88 75 90 76 / 90 70 80 30 MCALLEN 88 77 90 78 / 90 70 90 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 87 76 87 76 / 90 70 80 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 82 87 82 / 90 80 80 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 78 89 78 / 90 80 80 40 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...54-BHM LONG TERM....60-BE AVIATION...65-Irish