Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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396 FXUS64 KBRO 151121 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 621 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 While an upper-level ridge is expected to hold through the duration of the short term forecast period, this today could see plenty of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the region. This is due to the influx of moisture from the remains of Tropical Storm Ileana being carried over by the mid-to-upper level flow. This will allow for the development of convection over the Sierra Madre, which will then move into the Upper Rio Grande Valley. Thus, Starr and Zapata could be the first areas to see the showers and thunderstorms today and then during the course of the day these showers and thunderstorms could spread further east. The best chances for rain however will still be in the western parts of the region, while rain chances will decrease further east. Given the amount of moisture in the environment these showers and thunderstorms could be capable of producing heavy rainfall at times. As for temperatures, due to the expected increase in cloud coverage today, the high temperatures are expected to be cooler than normal. As such, the highs are expected to be in the range of upper 80s to low 90s for today. As for tomorrow, the high temperatures are expected to increase so that the entire region will be in the low 90s. As for the low temperatures, for tonight, they are expected to be in the 70s for the area. Another benefit of the cloud coverage is that since they high temperatures will be reduced for today, a Special Weather Statement for elevated heat indices will not be needed. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Modest mid-level ridging will reside over Texas at the beginning of the long term. At the surface, the pressure gradient will be weak. Ridging will remain over the area for the bulk of the long term, possibly starting to break down/shift at the end of the period. This forecast is not much changed from the previous one. I populated with the NBM and made no changes. The forecasted pattern will support warmer than average temps and elevated afternoon heat index values Tuesday through Friday. The best chance of borderline low end heat advisory conditions for some areas will be Thursday afternoon. Rain chances will tend to trend lower but will not completely disappear through the long term. Modest southeast surface winds and seasonal moisture will encourage daily isolated to scattered sea breeze convection. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Mostly VFR conditions are expected at all the TAF sites. However, with isolated to scattered rain chances over the region, there is the possibility of MVFR conditions. There is the possibility of some IFR visibilities as any shower or thunderstorm could be capable of producing heavy rainfall. Light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected at all TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Today through Monday...Mostly favorable conditions are expected through Monday, with light to moderate southeasterly winds and low seas. Isolated to scattered showers are possible and could result in locally elevated winds and seas. Monday night through Thursday night...We expect light to moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Mid-level ridging and a broad area of surface high pressure over the West Gulf will support mostly favorable marine conditions for the week. Any convection may contain more chaotic seas and stonger, gusty winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 90 77 89 78 / 60 50 60 20 HARLINGEN 90 75 91 75 / 70 40 60 10 MCALLEN 92 77 94 78 / 70 50 60 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 87 75 91 76 / 80 50 60 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 87 81 / 50 50 50 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 76 89 76 / 50 50 50 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...64-Katz LONG TERM....54-BHM AVIATION...64-Katz