687
FXUS64 KBRO 292327 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
627 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

An upper-level ridge will remain over Northern Texas through the
period, while a mid-level inverted trough moves across the Southern
Gulf and into Mexico. This will support a tropical disturbance
moving across the Bay of Campeche this weekend. The NHC has a 50%
chance of Tropical Cyclone development with this system over the
next 48 hours. Should further development occur, the system would
most likely make landfall in Mexico, with most of the impacts remain
to our south. Regardless of any further development, this system is
expected to increase moisture tonight and Sunday, supporting the
potential for showers and thunderstorms across Deep South Texas.
PWATs are expected to increase to 2  2.3 with moderate instability
and weak forcing.  Rain chances are expected to continue through the
day Sunday before decreasing Sunday night.

With the increased cloud cover, temperatures are expected to be
slightly lower Sunday and Sunday night. High temperatures Sunday
will likely remain in the low to mid 90s, with low temperatures
Sunday night in the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The long term forecast begins on Monday with a 500 mb high
pressure centered over the general vicinity of northeastern Texas
and Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Deep South Texas will still be in a more
moist environment as the northern periphery of a tropical wave,
located in the Bay of Campeche, continues to advect remnant
influxes of deep tropical moisture as it moves inland into Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) currently indicates a medium
chance (50%) of the system developing into a tropical disturbance
before making landfall somewhere between Veracruz and Tampico.
Despite the stabilizing effect of the nearby high pressure, a few
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on
Monday as precipitable water (PWAT) values may exceed 2.0 inches
during the day. However, the probability of rain is 20 to 30% and
limited to the RGV. By Monday evening, chances of rain drop off
considerably and winds will shift from easterly to southeasterly
as the 500 mb high pressure begins to push eastward.

The rest of the forecast looks to be quiet aside from daily isolated
showers and thunderstorms from sea breezes by midweek as the high
broadens across the southern U.S. and moisture wraps around its
southern fringe. In regards to temperatures, daily highs will range
from mid to upper 80s for the barrier islands and lower to upper 90s
inland. By midweek, maximum temperatures will approach, and slightly
surpass, 100 across the Rio Grande Plains and Special Weather
Statements may be issued for central and eastern Deep South Texas as
humid southeasterly onshore flow and temperatures result in heat
indices potentially reaching 110-113 for a few hours in the late
afternoon, but not long enough to meet Heat Advisory criteria.
Overnight low temperatures will range from lower 80s across the
barrier islands and lower RGV as well as mid to upper 70s elsewhere.
However, as the week progresses, lower 80s will expand into the rest
of the RGV and Rio Grande Plains while upper 70s are expected for
the rest of inland portions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Few to scattered clouds providing VFR conditons with light east
to southeast winds overnight. Increasing clouds around and after
sunrise may produce patches of MVFR ceilings as a trough of low
pressure approaches from the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Showers and
thunderstorms expected to increase through Sunday with clouds
decks teetering on the edge of VFR-MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Tonight through Sunday night...A broad area of low pressure over
the Bay of Campeche is expected to move westward through the short
term period. Meanwhile a broad area of high pressure over the
Northern Gulf will support generally easterly winds across the
Northern Gulf. The combination of these systems will likely lead
to building seas through the period, with Small Craft Advisories
likely to be needed Sunday. While the NHC has a 50% chance for
Tropical Cyclone development in the Bay of Campeche over the next
48 hours, the system is expected to remain to the south before
making landfall in Mexico. Impacts from this system will likely be
limited to increased rain chances and slightly higher seas
Sunday.

Monday through Saturday...Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) may
continue to result from elevated seas on Monday as swell,
generated by a tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche, continues to
push through the Gulf waters. However, seas will improve going
into Tuesday and beyond, leading to more ideal conditions for the
rest of the week though SCEC conditions are possible by midweek as
a weak pressure gradient results in moderate southeasterly winds
during the daytime.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  92  80  94 /  20  60  30  30
HARLINGEN               78  93  76  94 /  10  50  20  30
MCALLEN                 81  94  79  96 /  10  60  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         79  93  77  94 /   0  60  30  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  88  84  88 /  20  50  20  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     81  91  80  92 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...59-GB