Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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308 FXUS64 KBRO 071927 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 227 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Rain-free conditions and slightly above normal temperatures will persist across Deep South Texas as the region remains under the influence of the mid-level ridge. Surface high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will maintain light southerly to southeasterly flow, which will maintain dew points in the mid to upper 70s. However, the mid-level ridge will weaken slightly and will result in high temperatures around a degree or two lower than Friday afternoon. This will result in heat indices ranging from 102 to 109 degrees Saturday afternoon, and while not quite as hot as we`ve experienced, will still require anyone spending time outside to practice heat safety. Otherwise, tonight and Saturday night will remain mild with lows falling into the mid 70s to around 81 degrees. Low stratus clouds and patchy fog may develop across portions of the region as winds become light and variable overnight, but should quickly dissipate by early to mid morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Key Messages: *Above normal high and low temperatures *Very low rain chances While not much changes with the mid-level ridge that will continue to be the major player in the weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. A slight weakening with the mid-level ridge will allow for some of the temperatures to decrease a bit, they are still expected to remain above average. Another consequence of the presence of the mid-level ridge will be the continued lack of rainfall as well, thanks to the stable and dry middle and upper atmosphere. Meanwhile, on the surface, the southeasterly flow will continue for most of the long term forecast period but towards next Friday, the surface winds are expected to become more easterly. However, this southeasterly flow will continue to bring in more warm humid air to the region. As for the temperatures for the long term forecast period. Starting the highs, mostly upper 90s along the coast and triple digits for the rest of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley is going to be the pattern. The weakening of the mid-level ridge that was discussed before would only allow for a decrease of temperatures by a degree or two. However, that could be possibly enough to keep the area out of needing as many Heat Advisories. Mostly everyday in the long term forecast period looks to be borderline in terms of needing a Heat Advisory due heat indices being the the range of 109-114. With Tuesday and Friday, being the least likely of the days that will need a Heat Advisory at this current time. Thus a Special Weather Statement could be sufficient enough to cover it. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR and light southeasterly winds will prevail through the TAF period, with the exception being near the early morning hours on Saturday. As winds become light to calm overnight, patchy fog may develop, mainly near HRL and north of the TAF sites. Some patchy MVFR ceilings will also be possible, with the best potential for MVFR ceilings at MFE. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Now through Saturday night...Favorable marine conditions expected through the period with light east to southeast winds and low seas. Haze may limit visibility at times, especially late at night or early in the morning. Offshore streamer showers and storms may increase beyond 20 nautical miles Saturday morning as winds turn more southerly. Sunday through Next Friday...Favorable conditions are expected to persist through next Friday with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 95 81 97 / 0 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 75 97 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 77 99 79 100 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 82 89 / 10 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 92 80 94 / 0 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22-Garcia LONG TERM....64-Katz AVIATION...22-Garcia