240
FXUS61 KBTV 241956
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
356 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After another day of mostly dry weather today, the next chances for
rain arrive tomorrow through Thursday as a series of fronts move
through, before drier weather returns for the end of the week. After
a brief cool down on Wednesday, temperatures will return to near
normal for the remainder of the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...It`s been a dry and seasonably warm
day across the region today, albeit a bit cloudy than the last
couple of days. The dry weather will come to an end this evening
as an upper level trough over the Great Lakes pivots eastward
towards Quebec, with the accompanying surface low and associated
frontal boundary following, bringing a wetting rainfall to the
region. Cloud cover will continue to increase as we head into
the evening and overnight hours before showers begin to push
into northern New York and slowly work eastward late tonight.
Although the showers will be fairly widespread as they move in,
the will likely wane in coverage as they move into the Champlain
Valley, although they will become more numerous late in the
Wednesday and continue into Thursday. A few rumbles of thunder
may be possible, especially across northern New York, but
instability is rather limited for any severe threat. Rainfall
amounts will generally be between 0.5 to 1.25 inches of
rainfall, with the highest amounts seen across the Adirondacks
and the spine of the Greens. Winds will be rather breezy,
especially Wednesday evening as a low-level jet moves overhead
especially across Vermont and Lake Champlain with gusts between
20 to 25mph. Temperatures tomorrow will be on the cool side,
with daytime high temperatures generally in the upper 50s to low
60s as cool maritime air is ushered in from southeasterly flow.
Overnight lows Wednesday night will be on the milder side due
to increased cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, with
temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...An upper level trough will slide into the
forecast area on Thursday, bringing more precipitation in two parts.
First, a warm front is expected to be crossing the area Thursday
morning, bringing 50-80% chances of precipitation with highest
probability of rain in the Champlain Valley and east. Low topped
thunderstorms are still possible, mainly for the St. Lawrence
Valley, as models are projecting up to 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE across
northern New York Thursday. Modeled precipitable water values drop
throughout the day Thursday, decreasing PoPs into the afternoon.

However, a cold front will sweep through as well, bringing a renewed
chance of precipitation later in the day. Total additional
precipitation will be around 0.10-0.50 inches. The day should start
out slightly gusty as well out of the south, but winds will decrease
throughout the day, turning more westerly by Thursday evening. West
of the Greens, the warm front may allow temperatures to climb
slightly above seasonal averages in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
though areas east of the Greens may remain closer to climatological
normals in the 60s.

Thursday night and Friday may see some light lingering and wrap-
around showers. PoPs drop off quickly Thursday evening, but there is
still about 20-40% chance of some showers Thursday night into Friday
morning. Lows will take a hit in the Adirondacks Thursday night,
dropping into the 40s, otherwise lows in the 50s are expected for
most elsewhere. Friday, temperatures will be around seasonable in
the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...After light lingering and wrap-around
showers in eastern Vermont taper off Friday, high pressure will move
in to replace the previous upper low, and we begin another extended
stretch of drier weather. Temperatures will generally be slightly
average with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the mid
40s to mid 50s. Fog formation continues to be a possibility each
night under light boundary layer winds and clearing skies. Next
chance of precipitation will be early to mid next week with models
showing discrepancies of timing of a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail at all
terminals for the first half of the forecast period. Cloud
cover is expected to increase throughout the afternoon ahead of
an incoming frontal boundary that will bring showers to the
region, arriving at KMSS/KSLK around 07Z and continuing to move
eastward. Some MVFR ceilings are expected towards 12Z as the
showers continue to move in. Reductions in visibility may also be
possible with these showers. Winds will generally be
south/southeast between 6-12 kts throughout the forecast period,
with some gusts around 15 kts possible this afternoon and
another period of stronger gusts after 15Z. Some LLWS may be
possible at the end of the forecast period as a low level jet
moves through the region, especially across northern New York.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Kremer