802
FXUS61 KBUF 220752
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
352 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A narrow ridge of high pressure will bring a dry day for most areas,
with a mix of clouds and sunshine through yet another warm day. A
cold front will near the region late tonight and Monday, bringing
showers and an isolated rumble of thunder to again primarily Western
New York. As a warm front lifts across the region Tuesday night and
Wednesday more widespread rain showers will fall upon the entire
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This early morning clearing skies and light winds are allowing for
areas of fog and low stratus to develop, including the traditionally
foggier areas of the Southern Tier, but also portions of the Niagara
Frontier. Fog may be locally dense in the river valleys through
around 8-10 am.

Morning fog and low stratus will erode, and contract back towards
Lake Ontario by mid morning, leaving a mix of sun and clouds for the
rest of the day with dry weather prevailing as a narrow ridge builds
across the eastern Great Lakes. A southeast flow through the day
will meet developing lake breeze boundaries, with perhaps a spot
shower for inland areas of Western New York. However most areas
should remain dry through the day. Temperatures will remain above
normal with most highs in the mid 70s to around 80.

Dry through the evening and much of the overnight hours. It will
remain warm with a light southerly flow ahead of a cold front that
will approach from the west. As moisture increases aloft, and a
shortwave trough reaches WNY, clusters of light showers ahead
of this cold front will move into far western locations late
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday, a mid level shortwave and associated surface trough will
move east across the eastern Great Lakes, weakening with time and
eastern extent. Showers will have spread into much of Western NY
from the Genesee Valley westward by daybreak Monday with the arrival
of deeper moisture and forcing. The showers will then spread east
through the day, reaching Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario
region by afternoon. The coverage and intensity of showers will
likely diminish with eastern extent as forcing weakens. Meanwhile
across Western NY, expect some dry time to develop Monday afternoon
in the wake of this first trough as a mid level dry slot moves into
the area.

Monday night, the initial mid level and surface trough will continue
to weaken and wash out over Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario
region as it moves into a persistent ridge and subsidence over the
northeast US. An area of mid level dry air will move into the
eastern Great Lakes, supporting a temporary lull in rain. Low level
moisture will persist, so a few isolated light showers cannot be
ruled out, but expect it to be rain free much of the time Monday
night.

Tuesday through Tuesday night, a northern stream trough will dig
into the Upper Midwest, carving out a deep longwave trough over the
upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes. The digging
upstream trough and associated downstream flow adjustments will
force a southern stream shortwave and a substantial area of deep
moisture to move northeast from the Ohio Valley into the eastern
Great Lakes later Tuesday through Tuesday night. Tuesday may start
mainly dry in Western NY, but rain chances will then increase
through the day as deep moisture and forcing increase with the
approach of the southern stream shortwave. Farther east, expect dry
time to last longer through the day Tuesday, with rain arriving in
the eastern Lake Ontario region later in the afternoon or evening.
Rain will be widespread Tuesday night as the best forcing and
deepest moisture cross the region. There could be some isolated
thunder later Tuesday through Tuesday night with limited
instability, but expect coverage to remain sparse.

Temperatures will trend downward through the first half of the week
with persistent clouds, showers, and a somewhat cooler airmass.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower 70s for lower
elevations and 60s for higher terrain, but it will be cooler than
that during periods of rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A deep longwave trough over eastern North America on Wednesday will
advance slowly east to the eastern seaboard through the end of the
week. While this general large scale pattern is well agreed upon in
model and ensemble guidance, the smaller scale details have shown
considerable run to run differences, especially in the handling of a
potential closed low over the south central US late in the week.

For our area, the slow eastward progress of the longwave trough will
keep unsettled weather in the forecast with a good chance of rain
showers Wednesday through at least Thursday. The finer scale
synoptic details that are quite uncertain at this point will
determine how widespread the rain will be on these days. The rain
chances will gradually taper off from west to east Friday through
Saturday as the trough moves slowly east, and the plume of deeper
moisture moves to along, and eventually off the east coast.

Temperatures will continue to run cooler than the past few weeks.
Highs most days will be in the lower 70s for lower elevations and
60s for higher terrain, but it will be cooler than these values
during periods of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS the concern will be the formation and location of
fog through the first 6-9 hours of the TAF cycle. Expect fog in the
traditionally Southern Tier tonight, but also NW NYS, including KIAG
where low level moisture with clearing skies should allow for fog
and low stratus. This fog or low stratus will near KBUF from the
north but struggle to pass over the airfield with slightly drier
airmass overhead...due to a lack of recent rainfall.

Otherwise for the Genesee Valley and east of Lake Ontario mainly VFR
flight conditions today.

Light winds today will become more southeasterly this evening and
overnight. This, along with increasing clouds aloft will limit fog
formation tonight. Ahead of a cold front a few showers may near the
three far western TAF sites late tonight.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...VFR/MVFR with chance to likely showers and
a chance of thunderstorms at times.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak ridge of high pressure will maintain light winds and low wave
heights on the Lakes today. There may be a little fog over the
western Lake Ontario waters through the morning and early afternoon
hours.

Tonight winds will become southeasterly ahead of a cold front. These
southeast winds will approach 20 knots over the offshore waters of
eastern Lake Ontario...with waves around four to five feet rolling
into the Canadian waters.

This cold front will stall just to the west of the Lower Great
Lakes, with a south to southeast flow maintained over the Lake
waters through Wednesday. Eventually this cold front will push
eastward, with winds veering to a westerly flow Wednesday night and
Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas