458
FXUS61 KBUF 180754
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
354 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain fair dry weather with mild weather
for the foreseeable future. Next chance for some much needed
rain may not come until early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For those doing some late-night moon gazing, just some mainly
thin upper level cirrus overhead for the remainder of the
overnight, which is allowing for fairly good viewing. Patches of
thicker cirrus will be present at times the further south you
head toward the NY/PA line, which may make for a more hazy
appearance to the moon, or possibly even obscured at times.
Otherwise, dry weather prevails owed to high pressure over the
region. Lows will eventually bottom out in the 50s for most
spots.

A large upper level storm system centered over the western Carolinas
tonight will continue to direct a wealth of high level clouds across
our region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Even so, a fairly stout
ridge will keep the area precipitation free through this period and
mild. Highs Wednesday will once again reach into the upper 70s to
lower 80s for the vast majority of the region. These temperatures
are more typical for July or early August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low pressure south of New England will move little during the
period. Deeper moisture associated with the coastal low will remain
east of the area, as a mid level ridge continues to hold over the
region. Light winds will become northeast behind a backdoor cold
front Friday. An uptick in clouds will increase from northeast to
southwest Friday through Friday night.

Temperatures remain above normal, highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will extend south Saturday through Sunday
which should maintain dry and warm weather across the forecast area.
Ensemble means show the pattern becoming more amplified early next
week across the Great Lakes region. A trough may dig into the Mid-
West with moisture increasing from the south. Showers may move into
the region Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly trend
down but be above normal through the Long Term period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR flight conditions expected through the 06Z TAF
period, with a couple late night through mid morning exceptions.
Patchy areas of radiation fog along with typical valley fog is
expected later tonight into the first part of Wednesday morning.
This will mainly be across the Southern Tier (KJHW) and possibly at
KART once again as a light, but cool/moist drainage flow advects
southwest down the Saint Lawrence valley. Already some MVFR VSBYs
being observed `upstream` at KOGS and KMSS, which typically precedes
restrictions at the KART terminal. Per usual however with these
scenarios, confidence in this actually directly impacting the KJHW
or KART airfield is not that high due to the patchy nature of the
fog and a weak, sometimes variable low level wind flow.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak pressure gradient will promote light winds, under 10 knots, and
very little wave action through the rest of this week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK/TMA
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...AR