Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
788 FXUS65 KBYZ 012004 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 204 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .DISCUSSION... Through Tuesday Night... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave moving thru eastern MT early this afternoon, and as of 130pm we continue to see showers from Miles City to Broadus eastward. This precip should exit our cwa in the next couple hours. Broad troffing exists over the region and with diurnal heating and modest instability, there are isolated showers developing over our west. Further upstream, the next shortwave is moving from WA/OR into central ID. This feature will be our main weather-maker tonight. Showers are likely (60-90% chance) over our southern mountains and foothills tonight, per the next approaching wave as it tracks across northern WY, and precip over this area should reach 0.15-0.45 inches (70% chance of over 0.10"). Billings may or may not see some showers tonight, as the metro area will be on the northern fringes of the ascent. Furthermore, snow levels look to fall to near 10,500 feet, which is enough for snow at the highest elevations of the Beartooth-Absarokas. An inch or two of wet snow is possible (30% chance) over peaks like Granite, Wood, Whitetail...and possibly the high reaches of Beartooth Pass. Keep this in mind if you are headed for the mountains tonight. Shortwave exits early Tuesday but we remain under cyclonic flow and cool air aloft. This should yield isolated to scattered showers and weak thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and early evening. By late tomorrow we will see modest height rises ahead of the next wave dropping out of western Canada...so Tuesday night is looking dry after sunset. Mixed W-NW winds will also be somewhat breezy tomorrow during the peak heating hours (20-30 mph gusts). Temps will be a bit cooler than early July normals. Look for upper 40s to mid 50s for lows, and highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to near 80F most places. JKL Wednesday through Monday... Unsettled weather looks to continue through much of the long term with near to below normal temperatures through Friday, before a gradual warmup into early next week. A trough and associated cold front are progged to move through the area on Wednesday bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms (50-70%). Modest instability and shear over the region could lead to a few stronger thunderstorms over southeast MT on Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances linger into Thursday (30-70%, highest over southeast MT) as the trough gradually shifts east and develops into a low over the Dakotas, and moisture wraps back around into the area. With cooler temperatures, snow levels look to fall down towards 10,000 feet Wednesday night into Friday, bringing some light snow accumulations to the highest peaks in the southern mountains. Probabilities of 0.25 inches or more from Wednesday through Thursday range from 20% over the west to 50% over the east. Daily shower/thunderstorm chances (20%) continue Friday into the weekend as ridging builds over the Pac NW, with weak shortwaves dropping in from the northwest allowing for glancing blows of energy and backdoor fronts. Temperatures are forecast to range from the 70s on Wednesday to and Thursday, warming into the 70s and 80s for Friday and Saturday. Heading into early next week, high temperatures creep back up into mainly the 80s. STP && .AVIATION... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will taper off this evening over much of the area, but another disturbance from the west will bring more showers, isolated thunderstorms and local MVFR to the western mountains by evening, then southern mountains/foothills tonight (i.e. mostly south of KBIL). The high terrain will be frequently obscured. VFR will prevail Tuesday, with W-NW winds gusting 15-25 knots. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 056/078 056/077 054/075 053/085 058/087 057/086 057/089 23/T 25/T 44/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U LVM 048/075 047/074 046/073 047/082 051/086 052/085 052/089 52/T 24/T 43/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U HDN 054/079 052/077 051/075 049/085 054/087 053/086 053/090 24/T 26/T 55/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U MLS 056/078 054/077 054/075 055/084 058/084 057/085 056/087 13/T 25/T 46/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 4BQ 056/078 052/079 054/073 053/082 057/084 056/084 055/087 22/T 16/T 56/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 10/U BHK 053/078 051/077 051/072 051/080 054/081 053/082 053/083 22/T 05/T 47/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/U SHR 051/075 048/076 047/072 047/082 050/085 052/084 052/088 65/T 15/T 54/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings