Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
688 FXUS65 KBYZ 281526 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 926 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .UPDATE... Winds have increased around Billings this morning with the Billings airport hitting 51 mph around 8am this morning. Have adjusted winds to better match the current trends for the day. Rest of the forecast remains on track. Arends && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday night... A cool, breezy day is in store today, with highs in the 60s and 70s. Widespread and gusty northwest winds of 25-45 mph will be felt today. Higher gusts approaching 50 mph in the western foothills are also possible, although the latest probabilities for gusts of 50 mph or greater are murky. The NBM is running pretty hot with winds while the HREF shows the contrary, as a result, we have done some model blending to taper down the much higher gusts produced by the NBM. A few gusts of 50 mph or higher are possible in the western mountains and foothills, most likely in Wheatland County. The chance for precipitation today will be confined to the far northern areas, as another upper low swings through the state. Precip probabilities range from 10-50%, highest north of Billings. Saturday will be slightly warmer, with ridging beginning to build into the region. Highs in the 70s to around 80F along with dry conditions will result in nice summer conditions. Ridging will continue to build into Sunday, with highs climbing back into the 90s. Matos Sunday through Friday... The brief upper ridging from the end of this week disappears for the start of the new week as an upper trough moves into the area throughout Sunday and introduces cyclonic flow that`ll persist and keep unsettled weather present across southeast MT for the first half of the week. During the transition period on Sunday, temperatures will quickly bounce up to the upper 80s and low 90s in the afternoon. However, those temperatures will likely be short lived as a cold front is progged to cross the area, shifting winds to the northwest. Prominent low-level jet across the plains into eastern MT will bring ample moisture to the area, and when combined with 35-45 kts of shear and the lifting from the cold front will likely provide a return to strong and possibly severe storms for the area. This low-level jet looks to continue into the night and provide nocturnal convection for the area as well, though there is disagreement already as to if the stronger storms will be slower and linger in eastern MT overnight, or be faster and already moving east through the Dakotas. Regardless, rain and storm activity will persist overnight. While a lull looks to occur Monday morning, another shortwave Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning will bring another round of storms, but with a heavier emphasis on rain showers or heavy rain- producing storms. Minor flooding is not a concern at this time, but it will be a potential impact to keep an eye on over the coming days to see how that wave evolves. A similar story is told with yet another shortwave going through on Tuesday before finally seeing more mild, drier conditions in the mid week on Wednesday. There does look like yet another system on the horizon for the end of week, but the spread is vast throughout the ensembles at the moment. Overall, a relatively active week is expected for the 4th of July week. Vertz && .AVIATION... Strong and widespread NW winds are expected today, in the 20-35 kts range. Gusts up to 40 knots are possible for all sites, with higher gusts approaching 45-50 knots possible around K3HT. Increasing low level cloud cover throughout the day will lower ceilings. VFR conditions should prevail, however periods of MVFR are possible with lower decks. Matos && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 072 047/077 054/087 059/079 056/080 054/083 055/077 1/N 00/U 01/B 67/T 43/T 12/T 24/T LVM 070 042/077 050/086 052/076 047/077 047/081 048/077 1/N 00/U 15/T 88/T 53/T 12/T 23/T HDN 074 045/079 053/091 057/081 054/081 051/085 053/078 1/N 00/U 01/U 67/T 53/T 12/T 34/T MLS 071 049/073 057/092 062/081 057/080 056/083 056/077 2/W 10/B 11/U 65/T 33/T 12/T 34/T 4BQ 076 049/076 055/096 061/081 056/080 054/084 056/077 0/N 00/B 01/U 45/T 42/T 11/U 23/T BHK 073 045/070 051/087 058/080 054/078 053/081 053/076 2/T 10/B 01/N 64/T 23/T 12/T 24/T SHR 076 043/080 052/096 055/079 050/079 048/084 050/077 1/N 00/U 00/U 47/T 52/T 11/U 23/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings