Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
592 FXUS65 KBYZ 292002 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 202 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .DISCUSSION... Rest of Today through Sunday Night... The low clouds that were present over eastern Montana this morning will continue to dissipate through the early afternoon today. By later this afternoon and evening, clear and dry conditions will prevail across the region. Expected overnight lows to drop into the 40s and 50s tonight. Sunday will start out dry and warm with temperatures reaching into the 80s and 90s. While dry conditions will prevail into the afternoon hours, chances of precipitation increase during the afternoon and evening from west to east as our next weather system approaches. The best chances of precipitation reside west and north of Billings, as showers and thunderstorms are likely (60-70%) to form west of Billings late in the afternoon, spreading northeast through central Montana during the evening hours. Much of southeastern Montana has low chances (5-25%) for precipitation as warm air aloft looks to inhibit any convective initiation. The one exception is around the Black Hills in South Dakota where convection could (25% chance) initiate. Along with this activity, a cold front will move through the area Sunday evening. This front will assist storm develop over central Montana where isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon and evening. The main threat with this activity is wind, but the stronger storms could produce hail as well. This may be another case where Billings sees a gust front move through from storms to the north, but convective initiation over Billings remains possible (30% chance). Cooler temperatures and additional showers and weak thunderstorms look to move in behind the frontal passage Sunday evening and night (30-80% chance). This unsettled activity will remain into the work week (more on that below). Arends Monday through Saturday... An active weather pattern is expected Monday through Thursday as we remain under broad troffing and below normal heights, with a series of shortwaves in the developing W-NW flow aloft. There is a chance (20-50%) of showers and thunderstorms each of these days, mostly in but not limited to the afternoons & evenings. Temps will be seasonably cool with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. The warmest day looks like Wednesday, when some brief pre-frontal warming is possible. A few items of note. This is not shaping up to be a severe weather pattern, due to its progressive nature, but any thunderstorm of substance will likely produce small hail given the relatively low freezing levels. Speaking of freezing levels, it is possible that the high elevations (10500+ft) of the Crazy and Beartooth- Absaroka Mountains see light snow showers during two periods... Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday night into Thursday. Even without frozen precip it will be cool and wet in the high country, so those with outdoor plans in the mountains should be prepared. Finally, as already alluded to, a brief period of pre-frontal warming may be followed by stronger forcing Wednesday...so if there is a time period to watch for stronger thunderstorms it looks like Wednesday afternoon & evening (this could change). Finally, Thursday is the 4th of July, and it looks cool and showery with highs in the 70s. Current indications are that shower potential will taper off in the early evening, which overall could be a perfect setup for Independence Day celebrations. Friday...we should see height rises associated with strong ridge building along the Pacific coast, but there may be one final weak shortwave in the NW flow, and thus lingering low pops and one final day of cooler-than-normal temps. There is strong consensus for the western CONUS ridge to bring us hotter & drier weather next weekend. It should be noted that there is high ensemble spread in the strength and exact location of the ridge (a ridge axis to our west would be not as hot). The 12z operational GFS & EC each show a 600dam high over NV at some point next weekend...so this bears watching. JKL && .AVIATION... Building high pressure aloft will bring widespread VFR tonight and Sunday. By late Sunday afternoon, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop west of KBIL, possibly affecting KLVM-K6S0-KHWQ with brief MVFR and strong wind gusts before 00z. The risk of TS will reach KBIL by 00z tomorrow. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052/090 060/080 057/078 055/082 054/076 053/082 056/090 02/T 57/T 43/T 13/T 45/T 22/T 11/U LVM 048/087 053/077 048/075 047/079 047/075 047/082 050/089 05/T 87/T 63/T 23/T 34/T 22/T 11/U HDN 052/095 058/081 054/079 051/084 052/076 050/082 052/091 01/U 27/T 53/T 13/T 45/T 22/T 11/U MLS 056/093 062/081 058/078 055/083 055/076 053/081 056/088 01/U 54/T 23/T 03/T 45/T 21/U 11/U 4BQ 055/096 062/081 057/078 054/085 055/075 053/079 055/088 01/U 25/T 43/T 03/T 45/T 22/T 11/U BHK 052/085 059/080 054/077 052/082 052/075 051/078 052/086 00/N 44/T 13/T 03/T 45/T 22/T 11/U SHR 051/098 056/078 051/076 048/084 049/074 047/081 050/088 00/U 17/T 74/T 02/T 34/T 22/T 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings