Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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718 FXUS62 KCAE 240610 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 210 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures are expected to continue for the next several days. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should occur each afternoon and evening, with better rain chances likely toward the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... KEY MESSAGE: - Warm and muggy conditions overnight. Abnormally warm conditions continued today with many locations reaching the upper 90s this afternoon, including 99 at Columbia. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity continues this evening, with the activity being confined to the eastern Midlands at this time. Expect this activity to slide eastward and wane as daytime heating diminishes over the next couple of hours, followed by warm and muggy conditions overnight. Lows are forecast to be in the mid 70s while the dew points are expected to be around 70. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough over the Great Lakes will deepen and move east into New England on Monday. A weak pre-frontal trough may bring a few showers to the area ahead of the main boundary in association with an axis of higher moisture. This moisture will be mostly above the surface, as dewpoints won`t take too much of a hit just yet. The boundary may stall somewhere across the central part of the state, where additional convection may initiate Monday afternoon mainly to the east in response to strong daytime heating. As the upper trough finally pushes through, downsloping is progged to cool dewpoints off into the 60s, or perhaps upper 50s toward the upstate Monday evening into Tuesday. Temperatures will remain hot with high temps in the mid to upper 90s. With afternoon dewpoints in the 60s, max heat indices are forecast around 105 degrees. For areas fortunate enough to get a shower or thunderstorm, temperatures could be slightly cooler. SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms mainly east of the I-95 corridor, mainly for gusty winds with dry air aloft. Any convection should diminish in the evening with overnight low temps in the low 70s. Best moisture remains relegated to the eastern CWA on Tuesday with that lingering boundary still not ready to move out. With lower dewpoints, head indices are expected to remain below or perhaps right at 100 despite highs in the mid to upper 90s. Additional showers and thunderstorms may occur mainly southeast of I-20 where the best moisture will be. Another night of mild lows with temperatures in the low 70s as diurnally driven convection dissipates. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Another upper trough moves through on Wednesday with high pressure aloft building back over the region late in the week. The associated front is expected to weaken a bit as it crosses the Appalachians, but there should still be an increased risk for showers and thunderstorms, at least compared to earlier in the week. Best rain chances appear to be Thursday and Thursday night, but it should be mentioned that the timing of the front remains in question, so there is low confidence regarding any severe weather threat. Outside of this feature, scattered diurnally driven convection is expected each afternoon with the heat continuing to be a nuisance; highs in the upper 90s each afternoon. Lows will also be mild in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Showers moving through the southern Appalachians associated with a surface trough approaching the area are expected to weaken as they approach the terminals with leading to scattered clouds below 10kft and maybe an isolated shower. Isolated showers and storms will be possible this afternoon, mainly at OGB but confidence is too low to include in TAF. Winds will shift from the SW to W most of today with some gusts between 15-20kts this afternoon. Winds shift out of the N tonight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions Tuesday through Friday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$