843
FXUS62 KCAE 280600
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
200 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions continue into the weekend. Afternoon
and evening rain and storm chances increase through the weekend
with noticeably higher moisture building into the region. A cold
front is expected to bring slightly cooler and drier conditions
to start off the work week, but building high pressure will
allow the return of temperatures near the century mark by mid-
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Combination of heat and humidity will keep muggy conditions
  across the area.
- Additional scattered thunderstorms develop during the
  afternoon.

Day will start off with some low cloud cover, but once mixing
begins, these clouds will begin to break. High pressure aloft
will be building back into the area through the day, but there
is still a surface boundary over the area helping to produce
weak convergence. There should still be enough instability to
produce another round of welcomed afternoon scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Model soundings showing inverted-v profile in
lower levels, with weak steering flow. Can not rule out some
gusty winds, and with pwat values around 2 inches, and with the
potential for slow movement of storms, periods of heavy
rainfall remain possible. Temperatures very similar to
yesterday, reaching only into the lower 90s in most areas.
However it will still feel quite muggy as heat index readings
reach around 100 degrees.

Rainfall lingers into this evening before dissipating by
midnight. Another round of late night stratus or fog in areas
that get rainfall. Overnight lows only falling into the middle
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key messages:
- Excessive heat concerns continue this weekend with headlines
  likely on Sunday. Additional rainfall likely.

A strong upper level trough moves through the Great Lakes and New
England this weekend. The best forcing with this synoptic feature
remains well to the north of the Southeast U.S., however it does
push a frontal boundary into the region. The combination of this
frontal boundary and precipitable water values in excess of two
inches will lead to scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms, especially on Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall
should occur near the stronger thunderstorms which would be most
welcome after a very dry start to June across the region.

Excessive heat remains a concern with heat index values 102-107F on
Saturday and 106-112F on Sunday. A Heat Advisory is likely on Sunday
with the possibility of an Excessive Heat Warning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Brief cooling trend Monday through Tuesday before the heat
  returns by the Fourth of July.

A frontal boundary continues to push south through The Midlands and
CSRA on Monday and may end up south of the region on Tuesday.
Noticeably cooler air should filter into the region during this time
period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain
possible on Monday with the frontal passage, but it should be drier
on Tuesday north of the boundary.

High pressure aloft rebuilds over the Southeast U.S. during the
middle of next week which allows the heat and humidity to return by
the Fourth of July. The chance of precipitation should be near
climatology for early July.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period outside of some
scattered showers and storms this evening.

Nearly calm winds in the boundary layer through early morning,
along with plenty of low-level moisture, is expected to provide
favorable conditions for some fog/stratus. HRRR and MOS guidance
continue to show this, so have continue to included ceiling
restrictions in stratus and visibility restrictions in fog lasting
until around 13z or so. After that, improvements expected to
occur by 14z with winds picking up from the southeast around 5
to 8 knots after 16z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
again be possible during the afternoon, but timing and coverage
remains uncertain so will not include in this forecast.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered showers-storms with restrictions
each afternoon into early next week as additional moisture
moves over the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$