328
FXUS62 KCAE 270107
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
907 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Very hot temperatures will continue into next week, with heat
indices exceeding 105 F across the area today. Rain and storm
chances start to increase Thursday with noticeable higher
moisture building into the region. Much the same will continue
through the weekend, with hot afternoon temps and a chance of
rain each afternoon-evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Another muggy night in store with increasing cloudiness.

Its a breezy and warm evening across the Midlands and CSRA. Much
like this time yesterday, there are convective debris clouds
lingering across the eastern Midlands which should continue to
dissipate during the next few hours. Unlike yesterday, high
clouds are starting to move into the region from the northwest.
Cloudiness will continue to increase through the overnight hours
as a trough approaches though we should remain dry through the
overnight hours barring an isolated shower this evening. The
added clouds will limit cooling tonight with forecast lows in
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Excessive heat continues with a significant increase in
 humidity levels and rainfall chances.

A weak upper level trough pushes into the region on Thursday. This
trough allows sub tropical moisture to advect inland which increases
the precipitable water levels to above 1.75 inches. The forcing with
the upper trough and the increase in mid level moisture should lead
to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures will again be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees
with heat indices 102-107 degrees.

The upper level trough fills in over the Southeast U.S. Friday
through Saturday which allows the high aloft to rebuild overhead.
Precipitable water levels should be in excess of two inches both
days. High temperatures should be in the upper 90s to around 100
with heat indices in the 102-107 degree range. A Heat Advisory may
be needed on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible given the deep moisture in place and daytime
insolation.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above normal temperatures persist with excessive potential on
  Sunday.

High pressure aloft retrogrades into the Southern Plains early next
week in response to an upper level trough moving through the Great
Lakes States and New England. A cold front associated with this
upper level trough should move into the Carolinas and Georgia Sunday
Night through Monday and increase rainfall chances. The lower H5
heights should allow high temperatures to decrease into the low to
mid 90s Monday through Tuesday, before warming again on Wednesday.

Precipitable water levels are expected to be in excess of two inches
through this forecast period. There will be a good chance of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Heat
indices may approach or exceed advisory criteria on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected during this forecast period, although
increased coverage of afternoon and evening storms expected.

Afternoon convection has waned and skies generally cleared this
evening with a southerly wind around 10 knots to start the
forecast. An upper trough to the west will approach overnight
and some increase in higher clouds is expected through the
morning. A 20-25 knot low level jet is forecast tonight which
should limit fog formation as boundary layer winds stay up
overnight. Guidance is not as aggressive with any stratus
tonight so will continue with a VFR forecast.

Winds are expected to shift more southwesterly as the upper
trough moves into the region Thursday afternoon around 5 to 10
knots. Scattered convection is expected to develop after 17z-18z
but confidence in location is uncertain so will hold off on
mention of prevailing thunder in the forecast.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased chance of showers-storms
with restrictions each afternoon Thursday through Sunday as
additional moisture moves over the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$