Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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097 FXUS61 KCAR 271027 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 627 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure crossing the area early this morning will continue southeast to a position over Nova Scotia late today. High pressure will build down from the north on Saturday, crest over the area Saturday night and remain over the region Sunday into Monday. High pressure will slide east of the area Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6:25 AM Update...Some showers are scattered across the north, and will likely continue to pivot through the north into mid- morning as the upper low tracks over. Carried scattered showers a bit later into the morning to cover these showers and raised temps a degree or two across the area early this morning with the clouds and moisture preventing much cooling. Previous discussion... Low pressure, both surface and aloft, will be crossing Northern Maine from northwest to southeast early this morning. Some showers will accompany the low and may be most concentrated right under the upper low early this morning across the north. Low pressure will continue southeast today toward Nova Scotia. Southern areas will have partial clearing this afternoon while the north remains mostly cloudy with spotty showers in the moisture wrapping back around the low. Tonight will turn out partly to mostly clear across the south while the north remains mostly cloudy in some wrap around moisture behind the departing low. Winds will become light and possibly calm late tonight as high pressure from the north begins to ridge over the area. This may allow patchy fog to form over the wet ground. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The low pressure system will move to the east on Saturday. Some remaining wrap around moisture is expected to produce some rain showers in the north, most likely in the form of light rain or drizzle. By the afternoon, the rain showers should move out of the area. For the south, expect clearing skies and decreasing winds as high pressure moves in. Temps should be in the low 60s. By Saturday night, high pressure should settle in. 00Z guidance shows some high clouds sitting over the region, holding temps in the upper 40s for the night. Calm winds and cool temps should produce some patchy fog. By Sunday, high pressure to the north of the Great Lakes and high pressure moving over the Gulf of Maine should pipe in warmer temps in the upper 60s to low 70s. By Sunday night, expected clearing skies with temps in the upper 40s and patchy fog. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Early next week is expected to be fairly inactive with the high pressure in place. By Monday night, temps could reach towards frost levels, though the NBM has increased temps this last update. Decided to stick with the NBM and will reassess with the next package. A cold front is expected to reach the area by Wednesday, however, extend models are still inconsistent with the timing of the front. The amount of rain and the track will depend on the track of Helene out to sea. Nevertheless, the boundary should exit by the end of the week. Temps should be near normal. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: LIFR conditions over the north will improve to IFR then MVFR this morning and remain MVFR this afternoon into tonight. IFR conditions over the south will improve to MVFR this morning then VFR this afternoon and remain VFR tonight. Winds light northerly today into tonight, possibly becoming calm in some northern valleys late tonight. SHORT TERM: Sat: Mostly VFR. Brief -SHRA possible across northern terminals. N wind. Winds light and variable. Sat night...VFR conditions across all terminals, though brief IFR vis possible in patchy fog at any terminals which see rain on Sat. Winds light and variable. Sun - Tues: VFR across all terminals. Winds NW around 5 kts, shifting SE by Tues 5 to 10 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will remain below SCA today and tonight. Seas 3 to 4 ft today, dropping to 2 ft tonight. Vsby should be good today and tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA criteria through the end of the week and into the weekend. Fog could limit visibility Friday night through Sunday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...LaFlash Long Term...LaFlash Aviation...Bloomer/LaFlash Marine...Bloomer/LaFlash