Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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086 FXUS61 KCLE 262355 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 755 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves southeast across the area this evening and early tonight. High pressure will return on Thursday and Friday before another low pressure system impacts the area on Saturday. High pressure builds back in Sunday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 7:55 PM Update... Secondary cold front/surface trough will sag southward across northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania overnight tonight. Lingering low level moisture as evident by 925mb RH values exceeding 90% indicate that low stratus will develop across much of the region overnight. High pressure builds overhead for Thursday and will allow for any left over cloud cover to gradually dissipate through the afternoon. Previous discussion... An upper-level trough and associated surface low/cold front are progressing southeast across the area with the trough axis with the cold front moving southeast of the forecast area sometime this evening into early tonight. Areawide rain with isolated thunderstorms is observed right now, with rain gradually ending from northwest to Southeast this evening. A secondary cold front or surface trough moves south across the area late tonight, with allow stratus possibly building in late tonight into Thursday morning. Model guidance has been trending towards a little bit more cloud cover than previously expected for Thursday morning. There also could be patchy fog but there is less confidence with that. High pressure gradually builds in Thursday with the highs centered over the area by Thursday night. This airmass is fairly cool with highs down into the 70s Thursday afternoon (below normal by about 5-7 degrees) and then down into the 50s Thursday night. Might even see a couple spots in inland Northwest Pennsylvania dipping below 50. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main concern for the short term period will be on Saturday as a cold front moves east through the area. Favorable shear of 35 to perhaps 40 knots will be in place ahead of the front to sustain organized convection. However, a pre-frontal trough appears to arrive Saturday morning across southeast OH which could limit available instability with lingering precipitation and cloud cover. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to be poor and generally less than 6 C/km. Will be something to watch over the next forecast iterations as GEFS machine learning continues to highlight the potential. Otherwise, Friday looks to be quiet as high pressure slides east into New England. Seasonable weather is expected with highs in the low to mid-80s as a warm front lifts north across the area. Precipitation chances may begin to increase late Friday night as the aforementioned system begins to enter the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly quiet weather is expected through the long term period as more seasonable weather returns behind a cold front and high pressure settles back in across the Great Lakes through Tuesday. Another upper-level trough is expected to move east through the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Tuesday into Wednesday which could bring the next chance for organized convection across the area. Temperatures will begin below average in the 70s on Sunday and Monday, becoming average to above average by Tuesday into Wednesday with highs increasing into the 80s to perhaps near 90. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Majority of terminals have improved back to VFR as showers and isolated thunderstorms along a cold front continue to track east out of the local area. Brief period of VFR will come to and end this evening as very moist lower levels will allow for low stratus and/or patchy fog to develop across nearly every terminal. Low stratus will primarily bring conditions to MVFR with areas of IFR possible at interior and eastern TAF sites. High pressure builds overhead through the TAF period and will allow for any lingering low stratus or patchy fog to dissipate by the afternoon Thursday. Southwesterly flow 5-8 knots will become northerly at 8-10 knots through the period as the high builds overhead from the northwest. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. && .MARINE... For the most part, marine conditions will be quiet through much of the week. Small craft conditions may return on Sunday behind a cold front as winds shift towards the northwest to north, 15 to 20 knots. Otherwise, a mix of generally light off and onshore flow is expected through the period. Only minor concern may be behind a cold front tonight, as winds shift towards the north with a very brief window of 15 to 20 knots possible late tonight into Thursday morning. Winds appear to quickly decrease back to 10 to 15 knots by late Thursday morning. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Iverson/Saunders SHORT TERM...Kahn LONG TERM...Kahn AVIATION...Iverson MARINE...Kahn