Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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945 FXUS64 KCRP 251752 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1252 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Key Messages: - Heat Risk: Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts. - Rip Currents: Moderate risk continues through tonight. Synopsis The weather pattern in South Texas remains relatively unchanged, dominated by an upper-level high-pressure system over W TX. Forecast models show the high-pressure center retrograding slightly westward today and tonight. Meanwhile a weak inverted trough moves west today around the southern periphery of the high. Despite this feature, subsidence from the high-pressure system will keep rain chances low (5-20%) today then have silent PoP`s tonight and tomorrow. Temperature and Humidity - Moisture Levels: Abundant moisture will persist in the lower levels, with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 2 inches through this morning, then dropping to around 1.70" by Wednesday night according to the GEFS mean ensemble. - Temperature Forecast: High temperatures are expected to range in the 90s today and tomorrow. However, the very humid airmass will lead to heat indices generally ranging from 105 to 109 degrees Fahrenheit, with some locations potentially reaching 110-113 degrees over the northern Brush Country and southern Coastal Bend this afternoon. However there is a low chance (10-20%) that heat indices will reach 110 degrees today. Coastal Conditions - Swell Periods: Swell periods have decreased to around 5-6 seconds this afternoon. - Tide Levels: Despite the decrease, tide levels remain about 1 foot above normal, around 2.2 feet MSL at Aransas Pass according to the P- ETSS model today and tomorrow. - Rip Currents: Despite lower swells and periods, elevated water levels in the bays and intracoastal waters continue to flow into the Gulf, creating stronger currents, especially near the jetties. As a result, will maintain a Moderate Risk for rip currents through at least tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Key Messages: - Dangerous heat returns with a moderate risk for heat-related impacts - Rain chances return this week into this weekend A shortwave traversing across the region around the eastern periphery of the ridge Thursday and the development of an inverted trough Friday in its wake will lead to low (15-25%) chances of showers and thunderstorms. The ridge is expected to shift eastward and expand east to west across the Southern Plains into the Southeast CONUS late this week into this weekend. Embedded shortwaves and inverted troughs moving along the southern periphery of the ridge late this weekend into early next week will lead to low to medium (20-40%) chances for rain with the most active day appearing to be Sunday. With the best subsidence remaining north of South Texas and increased cloud cover due to the shortwaves, max temperatures will remain in check and thus, heat index values will remain reasonable for this time of the year. However, WPC continues to show 30-40% chances for heat index values to range from 110-115 degrees Thursday through early next week from the Coastal Bend to the Brush Country with a low (less than 18%) chance of heat index surpassing 115 degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Mostly VFR ceilings will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. There is a pretty low chance for patchy fog to develop across a couple of eastern sites tomorrow morning (ALI and VCT). Guidance is also hinting on some brief MVFR ceilings around COT tomorrow morning. As of right now, it isn`t out of the realm of possibility though confidence is low at this time. Winds will be generally light to moderate around 12 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Today expect low chances (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms offshore accompanied by generally weak onshore flow today, weak to moderate tonight then weak to moderate again tomorrow. A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through late this week before becoming moderate to strong levels between 15-20 knots Friday. Weak to moderate flow is expected to return Saturday night. Rain chances will be low throughout the week, but will increase to medium late this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 93 78 94 / 0 0 0 20 Victoria 77 93 76 93 / 0 10 0 10 Laredo 79 98 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 76 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 20 Rockport 82 93 81 93 / 0 0 0 20 Cotulla 79 100 79 101 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 94 77 94 / 0 0 0 20 Navy Corpus 83 90 82 91 / 0 0 0 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF LONG TERM....JCP AVIATION...NP/92