Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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438 FXUS64 KCRP 270454 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1154 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Key Message: - Moderate risk of heat-related impacts Thursday, medium chance for a Heat Advisory Light showers this afternoon have been dissipating as they move northward through the Victoria Crossroads. Temperatures got up into the mid 90s and combined with dewpoints nearing 80, leading to a Heat Advisory through the rest of this afternoon for inland Nueces, inland Kleberg, inland San Patricio, and Jim Wells Counties. Any rain chances diminish tonight with brief instances of patchy fog at dawn over the Coastal Plains (20-30% chance). Moisture will remain above normal through most of the day tomorrow with PWATs around 2.0". A mid-level low will move into the Gulf of Mexico south of the mouth of the Sabine River tomorrow and stretch along the Texas Coast Thursday night. This will allow for very low rain chances (5-15%) across the Coastal Plains. There is some uncertainty with the moisture level as some guidance wants to advect drier air from the northeasterly flow aloft. But positive mid-level vorticity bands can act as a lifting mechanism that we`ve lacked today. Temperatures climb back into the 90s across most of South Texas Thursday with triple digits across portions of the Rio Grande Plains. Heat index values will once again flirt around the 110 mark but will be dependent on residual cloud cover from an earlier MCS over the Ark-La-Tex region. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Not much of a change has been required with this new Extended forecast package. Still ridging aloft will generally remain in control through much of the period while its center slowly drifts eastward into the southeastern US. A few waves and disturbance will be able to scoop in its periphery, first south of it Friday through Saturday, and then across the southwest towards mid next week. Provided there will be periods of deeper moisture arriving (PWATs up to 2.1"), there is a low chance (<25%) for showers and thunderstorms Friday, and a medium chance (<45%) heading into the Sunday to Monday time frame. One such wave, the one currently located over the central Caribbean, may become conducive for some gradual development into a tropical cyclone as it reaches the western Caribbean Sea or the southwestern Gulf over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center is giving this disturbance a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and a 20% chance over the next 7 days. We will continue to monitor this system as it evolves over the coming days as it may bring an increased risk for rip currents, minor coastal flooding and high swells across the area. Aside from this, expect heat indices to flirt with Advisory conditions daily through next week, specially along inland portions of the southern coastal counties and over the eastern Brush Country. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 944 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Winds will remain south to southeast through the TAF period. Patchy fog may develop over the Coastal Plains between 10-14Z which could lead to MVFR visibility for VCT and ALI. MVFR ceilings could also develop over the Brush Country so have included a TEMPO for COT and LRD from 11Z-15Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Weak to moderate flow will persist through late this week before increasing to moderate Friday afternoon through Saturday. There is a low to medium, 20-40%, chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through the weekend, potentially lingering into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 95 80 94 / 0 10 0 20 Victoria 77 95 78 93 / 0 10 0 30 Laredo 78 99 79 99 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 76 98 77 97 / 0 10 0 20 Rockport 82 93 83 93 / 0 0 10 20 Cotulla 79 103 80 101 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 96 78 96 / 0 10 0 20 Navy Corpus 83 91 83 92 / 0 10 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMF LONG TERM....ANM AVIATION...LS/77