Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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031 FXUS64 KCRP 180521 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1221 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 446 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Coastal Bend and adjacent Coastal Waters. The NHC has issued a Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory for an area of low pressure across the Bay of Campeche that has a high chance of developing into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storms over the next day or two. Strong to very strong winds and deep moisture are expected along the Texas Coast, which is expected to be well north of the tropical system. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Key Messages: - Monitoring the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical development. - Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of South Texas starting Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon. - Coastal Flood Watch and High Risk of Rip Currents in effect from tonight through Thursday morning. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of disturbed weather across the Bay of Campeche. There is a high 70% chance of a tropical depression or tropical storm developing across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by mid week. It is still too early to know if any tropical systems will approach S TX at this time. Regardless, heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding is a major concern for S TX. Deep moisture will continue to push into S TX tonight with PWATs expected to be at the 99th percentile by Tuesday. The combination of the very deep moisture and an approaching tropical wave from the east will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Tuesday night with the heavier rainfall expected by Tuesday evening. Therefore a Flash Flood Watch is in effect beginning Tuesday evening. There is also an increased risk of rip currents and coastal flooding beginning tonight due to strong southeast to east winds expected across the gulf waters, especially if a tropical system does develop across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and produces long period swells. The latest PETSS shows tide levels at Aransas Pass up to 2ft MSL (advisory conditions) by early Tue morning and approaching 3ft MSL (warning conditions)late Tuesday evening into early Wed morning. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Watch and High Rip Current Risk are in effect beginning tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Key Messages: - 70% chance of tropical development - Moderate risk of excessive rainfall on Wednesday - Significant river flooding possible - Significant coastal flooding and high risk of rip currents through the week The main concern through this forecast cycle is the potential for tropical development across the Western Gulf of Mexico. The NHC currently has a high (70%) chance of development for both the two and seven day periods. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development over the next few days. A Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm may form and move west or west-northwest towards the Gulf coast. The wind field associated with this low pressure in the Gulf will be rather large. We could see winds up to 40 knots stretching up the Texas coast. Regardless of development, we will see an increase in our rain chances as well as a variety of coastal concerns. Well-above normal moisture will spread across the region over the next several days. Latest guidance continues to suggest PWATs nearing 3". Rainfall forecasts have trended up with amounts across the Coastal Bend around 8-10" with the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads roughly 6-8". Isolated higher amounts are possible as well. As a result, flash flooding and river flooding will be possible. WPC currently has a moderate risk of excessive rainfall on Wednesday for much of the area. PETSS guidance suggests the threat for significant coastal flooding will continue through the end of the work week. Tide levels will approach 3ft MSL during high tide through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding looks possible Friday. In addition, we will likely hang onto a High Risk of Rip Currents through the work week. Conditions will improve as we head towards the end of the work week as this tropical disturbances moves off to our west and upper level ridging begins to influence the region. With that said, rain chances will linger as sufficient moisture remains in place. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 This TAF cycle will start off fairly easy with generally VFR conditions and isolated MVFR ceilings. There is a low to moderate chance of showers, with chances increasing to moderate to high across ALI, CRP, and VCT Tuesday afternoon and then into LRD and COT Tuesday night. MVFR conditions will prevail Tuesday and will deteriorate late Tuesday into Wednesday as heavy rain moves into South Texas. Winds will be elevated with gusts 25-30 knots expected through the day Tuesday; however, there is a Tropical Storm Watch in effect across the coast, so expect winds to increase through Wednesday, mainly over CRP. && .MARINE... Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Moderate to strong onshore winds this afternoon becoming strong overnight into Tuesday. Strong to very strong onshore winds are possible by Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. Occasional gusts to gale force will be possible Wednesday through Thursday. Wave heights are expected to increase to 10-17 feet across the coastal waters this week. If a stronger tropical system develops, we could see higher values. The National Hurricane Center has a high, 70% chance of development in the next 2 and 7 days. Regardless of tropical development, deep moisture will move into the area resulting in a 80-99% chance of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Rain chances trend down slightly heading into the weekend but we will still hold onto a decent chances for showers and storms as sufficient moisture remains in place. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 84 80 87 / 70 100 90 90 Victoria 75 82 77 87 / 60 90 70 80 Laredo 77 85 76 87 / 20 80 90 90 Alice 76 85 78 88 / 60 90 90 90 Rockport 79 89 81 90 / 80 100 90 90 Cotulla 78 86 77 89 / 10 70 80 80 Kingsville 76 83 78 87 / 70 100 90 90 Navy Corpus 80 87 83 89 / 90 100 100 90 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Watch for TXZ242>247-342>347-442-443-447. Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447. Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ245-342>345- 347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TC AVIATION...LS/77