Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
641 FXUS64 KCRP 182344 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 644 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 521 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A Tropical Storm warning is in effect as an area of low pressure spins over the Bay of Campeche this afternoon. Gradual strengthening has occurred during the day today and more convection is developing around the low. Still difficult to pinpoint the center as we watch for when it becomes a closed low. The system is moving slowly towards the north near 6 mph and is expected to turn northwest then west accompanied by an increase in forward speed. Some increase in strength is expected as atmospheric conditions are conducive for gradual development. This system is currently progged to become a Tropical Storm by tomorrow and landfall Thursday morning in Mexico. Most convection today has been offshore with a few smaller storms making it inland. Satellite derived PWAT values are now over 2.0" along the coast and is expected to increase to around 3.0" according to GEFS ensemble plumes for KCRP. Heavy rain continues to be the primary concern with this system, and rainfall totals of 4-10" are expected along the Coastal Bend with localized higher amounts up to 15" are possible where some of the heavier bands set up. Rainfall rates will be a concern with 2-3"/hour rates increasing the concern for flash flooding. The most widespread/heaviest convection looks to be after midnight tonight through Thursday. The next notable impact from this system will be coastal flooding. Storm surge up to 3 feet and tidal levels will combine to result in significant coastal flooding along the Middle Texas Coast. Tidal levels at Port Aransas have topped 2" MSL which is already coastal flood advisory criteria. P-ETSS guidance has tides approaching 3 feet which would result in significant coastal flooding. These levels would completely shut off beach roads, and push water over many low/coastal flood prone areas along the bays including Rockport, North Beach and Port O`Connor. Tide levels will begin to subside on Thursday. Winds have increased little during this forecast package. Highest winds associated with system remain displaced well north of the center, so while landfall of an eventual cyclone is expected to be in Mexico, the strongest winds will be pushing into the Middle Texas Coast. Over the waters, winds gusting to 65 mph or higher are possible, but winds will quickly diminish over land, with 45 to 55 mph gusts possible along the coast, especially within some of the convective bands. Finally, there is a limited risk for tornadoes tomorrow across most of the CWA. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 521 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Thursday evening is when things are expected to taper off as the system moves further inland. Moisture will linger and rain chances remain through at least Friday and into the weekend as the surface ridge remains over the eastern US with general weakness to persist over the western Gulf. High temperatures that will be in the low to mid-80s for mid-week will creep back up into the 90s by the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR ceilings are still expected to prevail for at least a few more hours. MVFR ceilings are expected to begin moving in beginning at the eastern TAF sites and then progressively spread westward reaching LRD and COT by 06Z. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage overnight as Potential Tropical Cyclone One makes landfall in Mexico tonight. Low ceilings and visibilities will cause categories to drop to IFR Wednesday morning with periods of LIFR across the eastern TAF sites. Winds are expected to be gusty with gusts around 35 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 521 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. Strong to very strong onshore winds are occurring. Wave heights are expected to increase to 13 feet up to around 20 feet across the coastal waters Today through Thursday. Deep moisture will move into the area resulting in a 80-100% chance of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Rain chances trend down slightly heading into the weekend but we will still hold onto a decent chances for showers and storms as sufficient moisture remains in place. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 85 80 88 / 80 90 100 90 Victoria 76 82 77 88 / 70 90 70 70 Laredo 78 83 76 88 / 10 90 100 90 Alice 76 83 77 88 / 60 90 100 90 Rockport 79 90 82 91 / 90 90 90 90 Cotulla 79 85 77 89 / 0 80 90 80 Kingsville 76 84 78 87 / 80 100 100 90 Navy Corpus 81 87 83 90 / 90 100 100 90 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ242>247-342>347-442-443-447. Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ229>234-239>247- 342>347-442-443-447. Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ245-342>345- 347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF LONG TERM....BF AVIATION...NP/92