Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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058 FXUS64 KCRP 232346 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 646 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts. - Minor coastal flooding and a high risk of rip currents continues through Monday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving westward across the Coastal Bend toward the southern portions of the Brush Country this afternoon, will diminish through the evening hours as an inverted trough exits to the west. Additional showers will be possible once again overnight into Monday morning as a weak embedded short wave tracks west across S TX around the southern periphery of a mid/upper level high pressure system. Although mid and upper levels of the atmosphere are progged to be drier Monday due to the high pressure, abundant moisture will remain in the lower levels with PWATs remaining around 2 inches through most of the day Monday. This will maintain a low to medium (20-40%)chance of mainly showers across the southern portions of S TX. Thunderstorms may be possible, but will be isolated and brief as the upper level high will provide some weak subsidence across S TX. The mid to upper level high pressure will maintain warm and humid conditions across S TX. Highs on Monday are forecast to be generally in the 90s, but combined with a very humid airmass, will lead to heat indices generally from 105 to 109 across S TX. A few locations may briefly reach around 110 in the afternoon. Swell heights and periods remain around 8-9 sec this afternoon, but are forecast to decrease tonight through Monday. However, given the continued easterly flow across the gulf, the swells may be slower to subside than what models are currently indicating. The P-ETSS does keep tide levels around 2ft MSL during high tide at Aransas Pass Monday through mid week. Therefore, have extended the Coastal Flood Advisory and High Rip Current risk through 7 PM Monday. This may need to be extended longer, but confidence is too low given the downward trend models are showing. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Key Messages: -Dangerous heat returns this week -Rain returns late this week The long term looks to remain on track from the previous issuance. There is a mid to upper level ridge that is expected to weaken as we progress through the week and gradually transition to the east over the course of the period. The influence of this ridge combining with the above normal moisture for this time of year in climatology (~2.00-2.20 inches) will allow for some dangerous heat related impacts. Heat indices are expected to be in the ball park of 109- 114F beginning Tuesday, though the best chances to see these values will likely be this weekend. Towards the end of the week, a shortwave is going to ride the periphery of the ridge down into the area. With the presence of the above normal moisture already present in the area, showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a result and remain through the rest of the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Isolated showers will continue for a few more hours before dissipating with the loss of heating. Winds will become light and variable overnight with some patchy fog possible across the inland coastal plains toward morning. Showers will redevelop along the coast late tonight through Monday morning. MVFR ceilings/visiblity during passing showers. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across South Texas through Monday afternoon. Expect VFR conditions outside of shower activity. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 There is a low (10-20%) chance for showers tonight through Monday morning. A weak to moderate east to southeast flow will become light tonight and will continue Monday and Monday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected for much of the week before increasing to moderate to strong levels (15-20 knots) Friday. Rain chances will be low throughout the week with seas subsiding to 2-3 feet Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 91 79 92 / 10 20 0 10 Victoria 76 94 75 93 / 10 20 0 20 Laredo 77 96 78 96 / 20 20 0 0 Alice 76 94 76 94 / 10 20 0 10 Rockport 81 92 81 92 / 10 20 0 10 Cotulla 78 98 79 99 / 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 77 92 78 93 / 20 30 0 10 Navy Corpus 82 89 82 90 / 20 20 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ245-342>347- 442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM/75 LONG TERM....NP/92 AVIATION...JM/75