661
FXUS64 KCRP 250539
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1239 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts.

- High risk of rip currents continues through tonight.

Not much change in the overall weather pattern through Tuesday with
an upper level high pressure maintaining an influence on S TX
weather. Models indicate the center of the high pressure will shift
slightly west Tuesday with a weak inverted trough moving west around
the southern periphery of the high, but the high pressure will
maintain a subsident airmass across the area and keep rain chances
low (5-20%).

Abundant moisture will remain in the lower levels with PWATs
remaining around 2 inches through Tuesday. This will maintain warm
and humid conditions across S TX. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to
be generally in the 90s, but combined with a very humid airmass,
will lead to heat indices generally from 105 to 109 across S TX. A
few locations may briefly reach 110-113 in the afternoon.

Swell periods have decreased to around 6-7 sec this afternoon.
Despite the decrease, tide levels continue to run around 1.5 feet
above normal and are currently near 2ft MSL at Aransas Pass.
However, area cameras show the water not quite to the dunes. The
P-ETSS keeps high tide reaching 2ft MSL over the next several
days, but tide levels may remain low enough to not create minor
coastal flooding. The current Coastal Flood Advisory ends at 7 pm
this evening and am not planning on extending it given the low
chance of minor coastal flooding at the next time of high tide
Tuesday morning.

As for rip currents, will continue with a high risk through
tonight and moderate for Tuesday. This is due to elevated water
levels in the bays and intracoastal waters continuing to exit into
the gulf and creating stronger currents, especially near the
jetties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat returns with a moderate risk for heat-related
impacts

- Rain chances return late this week and into the weekend.

An upper level ridge will weaken slightly and shift to the east. A
few shortwaves will move along the southern periphery of the ridge,
bringing a low (15-25%) chance of rain to South Texas late this
week. Chances will increase to a low to moderate (15-50%) chance of
rain late this weekend and into early next week as the ridge nudges
further to the east and an inverted trough develops and moves across
the area.

Chances for heat related impacts will increase to a low to moderate
risk later this week and into the weekend, with heat index values
ranging from 105-114 across portions of the area. Isolated locations
may even experience heat index values around 115.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions will prevail overnight at COT/LRD/CRP with MVFR
expected at VCT and IFR at ALI (brief periods of LIFR possible).
This will be accompanied by light southeast winds but may be
variable at times generally less than 6 knots. Some light patchy
fog and lower cigs will be possible near the ALI/VCT terminal late
tonight through tomorrow morning. Expect ideal conditions on
Tuesday with little cloud cover or precipitation (around 15%) as
drier air moves into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Weak onshore flow is expected tonight through Tuesday, becoming
weak to moderate by Tuesday night.. Weak to moderate onshore flow
will continue through late this week before becoming moderate to
strong Friday. Rain chances will be low throughout the week, but
will increase late this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  92  79  92 /   0  10   0  20
Victoria          77  93  75  93 /   0  10   0  10
Laredo            78  97  77  96 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             77  96  75  95 /   0  10   0  20
Rockport          82  92  82  93 /   0  10   0  10
Cotulla           79 100  78  99 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  94  77  93 /   0  10   0  20
Navy Corpus       83  90  82  90 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION...BF/80