812
FXUS64 KCRP 271801
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
101 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory for the Coastal Plains and northern Brush Country
  this afternoon

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday

The mid to upper level ridge will move eastward today and tonight
before becoming anchored across the southeast CONUS Friday and
expanding horizontally from east to west through the Southern
Plains. Before the ridge shifts, a weak shortwave will eject into
the Gulf of Mexico on the eastern periphery of the ridge. With the
best vorticity associated with the shortwave expected to remain
offshore and PWAT of less than 2" over terrestrial areas, showers
are not expected this afternoon. Our best chances for showers in the
short term will be Friday as a weak inverted trough moves through
the area. Due to limited moisture and uncertainty on the strength
and placement of the inverted trough, have keep pops on the low end
between 20-30% across the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend and Victoria
Crossroads.

Near normal temperatures are expected to continue today and tomorrow
with highs ranging from the low to mid 90s near the coast to near
102 degrees out west. With dewpoints expected to bounce between 78-
80 degrees across the Coastal Plains this afternoon, heat index
values will also bounce from 109-113 degrees. Due to that, decided
to issue a heat advisory from the Coastal Plains to the northern
Brush Country from 1-6 PM this afternoon. Please use caution if
outdoors this afternoon and remember to always look before you lock,
cars can become ovens in as little as 10-15 minutes.

With waters in the bays still receding from the impact`s of Tropical
Storm Alberto, dangerous currents could continue to linger through
Thursday night. Therefore, have maintained the moderate risk of rip
currents through Thursday night with a low risk for Friday as
conditions are expected to improve. Please use caution if entering
the waters, especially near piers and jetties where the threat it
the greatest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Very little change needed with this long term forecast update. We
head into the weekend with some low end rain chances on Saturday as
a weak ripple in the flow attempts to cut into the ridging aloft. We
will see rain chances increase into the 20-40% range on Sunday as a
tropical wave moves into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The NHC is
currently monitoring this area of disturbed weather. There is a low
(20%) chance of development over the next 7 days. Regardless of
development, a plume of deeper moisture will spread across our
southern counties, leading to these increased rain chances. This
would also lead to an increased risk of rip currents, potential for
coastal flooding, and increased swells. We will be able to better
fine tune our potential impacts, if any, over the coming days. With
that said, the latest NASA GMAO dust modeling continues to show a
plume of Saharan dust moving along our coast late this weekend. This
would help hinder tropical develop and reduce our rain chances. In
the wake of the tropical wave, ridging becomes reestablished as we
head into the work week. Some signs are beginning to point to
another wave stretch across the Gulf as we approach the 4th of July.

Taking a quick look at our temperatures, we will near Heat Advisory
conditions (110+) daily, generally across the Southern Coastal Bend
and the Coastal Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Light winds and VFR conditions will prevail through majority of
the TAF period. Brief MVFR ceilings and vsby caused by patchy fog
will be possible across portions of South Texas between 10-15Z.
Fog will be more focused over the inland Coastal Plains.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Weak to moderate flow will persist through late this week before
increasing to moderate at times Friday afternoon through Saturday.
There is a low to medium, 20-40%, chance of showers and
thunderstorms Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Skies may be hazy at
times on Sunday as a plume of Saharan dust spread across the
Western Gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  80  94  82 /  10   0  20   0
Victoria          95  78  93  79 /  10   0  20   0
Laredo            99  79  99  81 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             97  77  97  79 /  10   0  20   0
Rockport          94  82  93  84 /  20  10  20   0
Cotulla          102  80 102  81 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        95  79  95  81 /  10   0  20   0
Navy Corpus       91  83  91  84 /  10  10  30   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-241>244-
     342>344.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...EMF/94