974
FXUS64 KCRP 262311
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
611 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Key Message:

- Moderate risk of heat-related impacts Thursday, medium chance for
a Heat Advisory

Light showers this afternoon have been dissipating as they move
northward through the Victoria Crossroads. Temperatures got up
into the mid 90s and combined with dewpoints nearing 80, leading
to a Heat Advisory through the rest of this afternoon for inland
Nueces, inland Kleberg, inland San Patricio, and Jim Wells
Counties. Any rain chances diminish tonight with brief instances
of patchy fog at dawn over the Coastal Plains (20-30% chance).

Moisture will remain above normal through most of the day tomorrow
with PWATs around 2.0". A mid-level low will move into the Gulf of
Mexico south of the mouth of the Sabine River tomorrow and
stretch along the Texas Coast Thursday night. This will allow for
very low rain chances (5-15%) across the Coastal Plains. There is
some uncertainty with the moisture level as some guidance wants to
advect drier air from the northeasterly flow aloft. But positive
mid-level vorticity bands can act as a lifting mechanism that
we`ve lacked today.

Temperatures climb back into the 90s across most of South Texas
Thursday with triple digits across portions of the Rio Grande
Plains. Heat index values will once again flirt around the 110
mark but will be dependent on residual cloud cover from an earlier
MCS over the Ark-La-Tex region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Not much of a change has been required with this new Extended
forecast package. Still ridging aloft will generally remain in
control through much of the period while its center slowly drifts
eastward into the southeastern US. A few waves and disturbance will
be able to scoop in its periphery, first south of it Friday through
Saturday, and then across the southwest towards mid next week.
Provided there will be periods of deeper moisture arriving (PWATs up
to 2.1"), there is a low chance (<25%) for showers and thunderstorms
Friday, and a medium chance (<45%) heading into the Sunday to Monday
time frame. One such wave, the one currently located over the
central Caribbean, may become conducive for some gradual development
into a tropical cyclone as it reaches the western Caribbean Sea or
the southwestern Gulf over the weekend. The National Hurricane
Center is giving this disturbance a 10% chance of tropical cyclone
formation over the next 48 hours and a 20% chance over the next 7
days. We will continue to monitor this system as it evolves over the
coming days as it may bring an increased risk for rip currents,
minor coastal flooding and high swells across the area. Aside from
this, expect heat indices to flirt with Advisory conditions daily
through next week, specially along inland portions of the southern
coastal counties and over the eastern Brush Country.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Winds will remain south to southeast through the TAF period, with
occasional gusts over 12 knots. Patchy fog may develop over the
Coastal Plains between 10-14Z which could lead to MVFR visibility
for VCT and ALI. MVFR ceilings could also develop over the Brush
Country so have included a TEMPO for COT and LRD from 11Z-15Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Weak to moderate flow will persist through late this week before
increasing to moderate Friday afternoon through Saturday. There is a
low to medium, 20-40%, chance of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday night through the weekend, potentially lingering into
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  95  80  94 /   0  10   0  20
Victoria          77  95  78  93 /   0  10   0  30
Laredo            78  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             76  98  77  97 /   0  10   0  20
Rockport          82  93  83  93 /   0   0  10  20
Cotulla           79 103  80 101 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  96  78  96 /   0  10   0  20
Navy Corpus       83  91  83  92 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF
LONG TERM....ANM
AVIATION...LS/77