Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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407 FXUS64 KCRP 272254 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 554 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 An upper-level ridge will be the primary driver of the weather the next couple of days. There is a low chance of fog development over the inland Coastal Plains tonight as winds remain light and variable under mostly clear skies. Lows tonight remain persistent, from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s along the coast. A very weak shortwave will ride westward on the southern periphery of the ridge and combined with increasing moisture (PWATs greater than 2.0"), will lead to low chances of showers and thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains on Friday. High temperatures will generally be in the 90s with a few areas over the Rio Grande Plains reaching the triple digits. The increase in moisture will lead to a degree or two warmer low temperatures on Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Mid-level ridging will be in place much of the long-term period. On Saturday, low-end rain chances (10-15%) are expected due to a series of shortwaves propagating in the ridging aloft. These impulses combined with diurnal heating may allow for the formation of showers and thunderstorms. By Sunday, rain chances will increase (20-40%) as a tropical wave moves into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico from the Western Caribbean. This broad area of low pressure has a low-end development chance of 30% over the next 7 days. Regardless of it`s development, increased moisture will likely boost rain chances. Additionally, the system may raise the risk of rip currents and coastal flooding. However, a plume of Saharan dust projected to move into South Texas this weekend could hinder tropical development and reduce rain chances. Following the tropical wave, upper level ridging will reestablish by the start of next week, leading to an increase in temperatures. Heat indices will likely meet Heat Advisory criteria daily, particularly in the Southern Coastal Bend, Coastal Plains, and parts of the Northwestern Brush Country. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Light southeast winds will continue overnight, increasing to light to moderate winds Friday afternoon. Low level moisture will be sufficient to support patchy fog development leading to MVFR visibility from 09Z-13Z, particularly over ALI and VCT. Over COT and LRD, this moisture is more likely to result in brief MVFR ceilings from 12Z-15Z, but with low confidence have left this out of the TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Weak to moderate south to southeasterly flow will strengthen to moderate levels Friday night. Moderate onshore flow Saturday will decrease to weak levels by the start of the work week. There is a low to medium, 20-40%, chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Skies may be hazy at times on Sunday as a plume of Saharan dust spreads across the Western Gulf. By mid- week, moderate flow will return and continue through the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 94 82 93 / 0 20 0 0 Victoria 78 94 79 94 / 10 20 0 10 Laredo 79 99 80 99 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 77 98 79 96 / 0 20 0 0 Rockport 83 93 84 93 / 0 20 10 10 Cotulla 79 102 81 101 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 79 96 81 94 / 0 20 0 10 Navy Corpus 83 91 84 91 / 0 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-241>244- 342>344. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMF LONG TERM....KRS AVIATION...LS/77