429
FXUS64 KCRP 241923
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
223 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts.

- High risk of rip currents continues through tonight.

Not much change in the overall weather pattern through Tuesday with
an upper level high pressure maintaining an influence on S TX
weather. Models indicate the center of the high pressure will shift
slightly west Tuesday with a weak inverted trough moving west around
the southern periphery of the high, but the high pressure will
maintain a subsident airmass across the area and keep rain chances
low (5-20%).

Abundant moisture will remain in the lower levels with PWATs
remaining around 2 inches through Tuesday. This will maintain warm
and humid conditions across S TX. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to
be generally in the 90s, but combined with a very humid airmass,
will lead to heat indices generally from 105 to 109 across S TX. A
few locations may briefly reach 110-113 in the afternoon.

Swell periods have decreased to around 6-7 sec this afternoon.
Despite the decrease, tide levels continue to run around 1.5 feet
above normal and are currently near 2ft MSL at Aransas Pass.
However, area cameras show the water not quite to the dunes. The
P-ETSS keeps high tide reaching 2ft MSL over the next several
days, but tide levels may remain low enough to not create minor
coastal flooding. The current Coastal Flood Advisory ends at 7 pm
this evening and am not planning on extending it given the low
chance of minor coastal flooding at the next time of high tide
Tuesday morning.

As for rip currents, will continue with a high risk through
tonight and moderate for Tuesday. This is due to elevated water
levels in the bays and intracoastal waters continuing to exit into
the gulf and creating stronger currents, especially near the
jetties.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat returns with a moderate risk for heat-related
impacts

- Rain chances return late this week and into the weekend.

An upper level ridge will weaken slightly and shift to the east. A
few shortwaves will move along the southern periphery of the ridge,
bringing a low (15-25%) chance of rain to South Texas late this
week. Chances will increase to a low to moderate (15-50%) chance of
rain late this weekend and into early next week as the ridge nudges
further to the east and an inverted trough develops and moves across
the area.

Chances for heat related impacts will increase to a low to moderate
risk later this week and into the weekend, with heat index values
ranging from 105-114 across portions of the area. Isolated locations
may even experience heat index values around 115.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Generally VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF
period. Brief periods of MVFR conditions due to isolated showers
this afternoon and tonight due to patchy fog. The patchy fog will
generally be from ALI to VCT. Light east to southeast winds will
persist.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Weak onshore flow is expected tonight through Tuesday, becoming
weak to moderate by Tuesday night.. Weak to moderate onshore flow
will continue through late this week before becoming moderate to
strong Friday. Rain chances will be low throughout the week, but
will increase late this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  93  79  92 /   0  10   0  10
Victoria          77  93  77  93 /   0  20   0  10
Laredo            78  98  78  97 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             76  96  77  96 /   0  10   0  10
Rockport          81  92  82  92 /  10  10   0  10
Cotulla           79  99  79 100 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  93  78  94 /   0  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       83  90  83  90 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...TE