395
FXUS64 KCRP 261926
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
226 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Key Messages:

- High rip currents risk and coastal flooding potential continue
  into the weekend.

Benign weather conditions will generally prevail through the
short-term period as surface high pressure continues to settle
over the area in the wake of last night`s cold front. A gradual
clearing will occur through the night as the drier airmass pushes
in from the north. Temperatures will be much nicer tonight, with
lows dropping into the 60s areawide. Temperatures will run a tad
warmer tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s range, and
overnight lows running from the mid 60s inland to the mid 70s
along the coast.

Conditions across area beaches will remain dangerous as long
period swells from Hurricane Helene in the eastern Gulf arrive.
There is a High risk of rip currents in effect through Saturday
evening, and a Coastal Flood Advisory through Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor coastal Flooding and moderate to high rip current risk may
  continue into the weekend.

A long wave trough axis is progged to stretch from the eastern U.S.,
across E TX down to Deep S TX this weekend. However, a dry airmass
will remain in place with PWATs 1 inch or less, precluding any
rainfall this weekend. Moisture will gradually increase through next
week with a low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms across
the offshore coastal waters by  Monday. The low chance of convection
will shift west toward the coast through Tuesday and Wednesday. An
isolated shower or two could make it inland, especially by Thursday.

Due to the dry airmass, nights through Wednesday will continue to
feel pleasant with lows in the mid 60s to around 70, which is normal
for this time of year. Highs will be slightly above normal over the
weekend into next week and will slowly increase by a degree or two
each day. Increasing dewpoints will also lead to a gradual increase
in humidity by the middle of next week. The risk of heat related
impacts will remain minor through the period.

As for winds, expect light and variable over the weekend into next
week, becoming light east to southeast by mid week.

Lingering long period swells are expected to continue into the
weekend, which may maintain a moderate to high risk of rip currents
and minor coastal flooding during times of high tide. The swells are
expected to be subsiding, but there is some uncertainty as to how
quickly they diminish. For now, it is expected that the rip current
risk will remain high through Saturday afternoon based on forecasted
swell periods of 9-10 seconds. Minor coastal flooding is less
certain as winds will be light and westerly at times by the weekend,
making it less conducive for tides to reach the dunes.
Therefore, the Coastal Flood Advisory is through 7 AM Saturday
morning, but may be cancelled earlier or may need to be extended
depending on how quickly things improve. Will continue to monitor
trends through the period for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across area terminals through the
cycle. Winds will briefly gust to around 15-20 knots this
afternoon, before becoming light and variable overnight. A gradual
clearing of the cumulus deck is expected through this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across the near and
offshore waters north of Port Aransas through 4 PM. Waves are
expected to become elevated offshore later this afternoon in
response to Hurricane Helene progressing through the Gulf, leading
to Advisory conditions in the offshore Gulf waters south of Port
Aransas. Flow will transition to weak to moderate this evening
allowing the waters to likely drop back to Caution conditions.
Long period swells and elevated seas from Hurricane Helene may
linger into Saturday. Otherwise, winds are expected to be light
and variable with seas decreasing to 1 to 2 feet over the weekend.
Low (10-25%) rain chances return late Monday or Tuesday, mainly
across the offshore waters, then shift closer to the coast by mid
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    67  92  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          62  94  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            67  94  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             65  95  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          71  93  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           66  95  67  97 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        66  93  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       74  89  74  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT
     Saturday for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ255.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Friday for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....TE/81
AVIATION...ANM/88