737
FXUS64 KCRP 190518
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1218 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 521 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A Tropical Storm warning is in effect as an area of low pressure
spins over the Bay of Campeche this afternoon. Gradual
strengthening has occurred during the day today and more
convection is developing around the low. Still difficult to
pinpoint the center as we watch for when it becomes a closed low.
The system is moving slowly towards the north near 6 mph and is
expected to turn northwest then west accompanied by an increase in
forward speed. Some increase in strength is expected as
atmospheric conditions are conducive for gradual development. This
system is currently progged to become a Tropical Storm by
tomorrow and landfall Thursday morning in Mexico. Most convection
today has been offshore with a few smaller storms making it
inland.

Satellite derived PWAT values are now over 2.0" along the coast
and is expected to increase to around 3.0" according to GEFS
ensemble plumes for KCRP. Heavy rain continues to be the primary
concern with this system, and rainfall totals of 4-10" are
expected along the Coastal Bend with localized higher amounts up
to 15" are possible where some of the heavier bands set up.
Rainfall rates will be a concern with 2-3"/hour rates increasing
the concern for flash flooding. The most widespread/heaviest
convection looks to be after midnight tonight through Thursday.

The next notable impact from this system will be coastal flooding. Storm
surge up to 3 feet and tidal levels will combine to result in
significant coastal flooding along the Middle Texas Coast. Tidal
levels at Port Aransas have topped 2" MSL which is already coastal
flood advisory criteria. P-ETSS guidance has tides approaching 3
feet which would result in significant coastal flooding. These
levels would completely shut off beach roads, and push water over
many low/coastal flood prone areas along the bays including
Rockport, North Beach and Port O`Connor. Tide levels will begin to
subside on Thursday.

Winds have increased little during this forecast package. Highest winds
associated with system remain displaced well north of the center, so
while landfall of an eventual cyclone is expected to be in Mexico,
the strongest winds will be pushing into the Middle Texas Coast.
Over the waters, winds gusting to 65 mph or higher are possible, but
winds will quickly diminish over land, with 45 to 55 mph gusts
possible along the coast, especially within some of the convective
bands.

Finally, there is a limited risk for tornadoes tomorrow across
most of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 521 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Thursday evening is when things are expected to taper off as the
system moves further inland. Moisture will linger and rain chances
remain through at least Friday and into the weekend as the
surface ridge remains over the eastern US with general weakness to
persist over the western Gulf. High temperatures that will be in
the low to mid-80s for mid-week will creep back up into the 90s by
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

This TAF forecast is very tricky. First, we have a tropical storm
warning over our coastal counties. Winds could gust to around 45
knots along the coast. Sites further inland like COT and LRD are
likely to keep gusts in the 25-30 knot range for this afternoon.
With this tropical storm comes a lot of tropical moisture. Rain
bands will move through South Texas today with heavy showers and
thunderstorms. High rainfall rates are likely to reduce visibility
to IFR/LIFR as the bands move ashore and across the area. Ceilings
are also going to become IFR/LIFR across the area. These
conditions are expected by around 12Z across the east, then will
spread to the west through the day. All in all, terrible weather
for flying unless you really need to.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 521 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. Strong to very strong
onshore winds are occurring. Wave heights are expected to
increase to 13 feet up to around 20 feet across the coastal waters
Today through Thursday. Deep moisture will move into the area
resulting in a 80-100% chance of showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday. Rain chances trend down slightly heading into the
weekend but we will still hold onto a decent chances for showers
and storms as sufficient moisture remains in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  88  78  89 / 100  90  60  70
Victoria          77  88  75  90 /  70  70  20  50
Laredo            76  88  76  89 / 100  90  60  70
Alice             77  88  75  91 / 100  90  50  80
Rockport          82  91  82  92 /  90  90  60  70
Cotulla           77  89  77  93 /  90  80  30  50
Kingsville        78  87  77  88 / 100  90  60  80
Navy Corpus       83  90  83  89 / 100  90  70  80

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ242>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ229>234-239>247-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ245-342>345-
     347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...LS/77