291
FXUS64 KCRP 280727
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
227 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Key Message:

- Heat Advisory in effect from noon to 7 PM this evening

Water vapor imagery this morning depicts an upper level ridge
situated across the state. Convection can be seen moving across
the Plains as a shortwave cuts into the northern periphery of the
ridge. If we look to our north and east, we can make out another
weak shortwave that will rotate around the southern edge of the
ridge. With ample moisture in place (~2" PWAT) and some weak
support aloft, there is a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. If any storms do
develop, gusty winds will be the main concern as DCAPE values look
to be over 1000 J/kg. Convection will wane this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. There is a low chance of patchy fog
developing tonight across the Coastal Plains. Winds may stay
elevated enough to negate any development.

Another weak shortwave will rotate through the region on Saturday.
It`s possible we squeeze out some showers and storms as we reach
convective temps. However, moisture looks to be slightly lower than
what we will see today.

Went ahead and issued another Heat Advisory for much of the region
today. Heat indices will generally settle into the 110-114 degrees
range. A few locations across the Southern Coastal Bend may briefly
hit 115 but likely not for long enough to warrant an Excessive Heat
Warning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Saturday night, the upper level (500 mb) ridge is stretched out
across the southern tier of states, north of south Texas. Our
typical summer pattern with the sfc high to the east over the Gulf,
and the heat low in the Chihuahuan Desert/Sierra Madre Oriental. A
tropical wave that is being watched by NHC and has a 30% chance of
development in the next 7 days, is expected to move across the
Yucatan Peninsula, and into the Bay of Campeche by Sunday morning.
Current track on the wave is to move into Mexico around Tampico.
However, currently, the models have the rain from the system
spreading up north of the border, and into South Texas by 12z/Sun.
Expecting Chance pops (20 to 40%) along the Coastal Bend in the
morning, moving west into the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains by
the afternoon. The models have the rain out of the forecast area by
around 00z/Monday, as Saharan Dust is expected to move into the
region. Tracking the dust on the NASA/GEOS model, The best day for
the dust and the haze will be Monday, but will get to the Coastal
Bend as early as Sunday afternoon. So as the rain moves west, the
dust will fill in behind it spreading west into the Brush Country
overnight, and covering south Texas by Monday morning. Hazy
conditions will be expected through the afternoon and into Tuesday
as the dust settles. High pressure then continues over the region
keep South Texas rain free through the end of the week. However,
with the lack of rain the upper level ridge spreads out over Texas
and the SE US again, edging temperatures up a bit, but also allowing
the humidity to increase. PWAT values of 1.5" increase to 2.0" by
Wednesday and continue going into the weekend. This will allow the
Heat Risk to rise and spread out across the Brush Country and the
Coastal Bend.

95L is still a long way off with the ensemble members of the ECMWF
and GFS still in the Caribbean sea on Friday. So it is too early to
tell where that one is going.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Light southeast winds will continue, increasing to light to
moderate winds Friday afternoon. Low level moisture will be
sufficient to support patchy fog development leading to MVFR
visibility from 09Z-13Z, particularly over ALI and VCT. Over COT
and LRD, this moisture is more likely to result in brief MVFR
ceilings from 12Z-15Z, but with low confidence have left this out
of the TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A weak to moderate south-southeasterly flow this morning will
gradually increase to near moderate levels through the day. A
generally moderate onshore flow will continue as we head into the
weekend. An isolated showers and storms are possible over the
waters both today and tomorrow. Sunday, moderate flow will
continue as a tropical wave moves into Mexico during the
afternoon, which will also lead to low to medium chance (20-40%)
of showers and thunderstorms. Skies may be hazy at times on Sunday
afternoon and Monday as a plume of Saharan dust spreads across
the Western Gulf. By mid-week, moderate flow will return and
continue through the remainder of the period.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  82  95  81 /  20   0   0   0
Victoria          94  79  94  78 /  20   0  10   0
Laredo           100  80 101  79 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             97  79  98  79 /  20   0   0   0
Rockport          94  83  94  83 /  20  10   0   0
Cotulla          102  81 102  80 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        97  81  96  79 /  20   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       92  84  92  84 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ229>234-241>244-246-247-342>344.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC/95
LONG TERM....JSL/86
AVIATION...LS