894
FXUS61 KCTP 270002
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
802 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall will
 settle southward to the Mason Dixon line by midnight.
*Partly to mostly sunny and less humid Thursday and Friday
*Return of summertime heat+humidity will fuel thunderstorms for
 the last weekend of June; seasonably cooler & dry start to July

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
725PM EDT: Remainder of SVR WW #464 cleared from central PA at
this time.

Evolution from discrete and training cells to broken and bowing
convective line segments occurred over the past 2 hours, with
the most intense convection exiting to our east. Hires models
show rain and storms progressing from northwest to southeast
btwn 00-06Z with a general weakening trend expected as BL
stabilizes after sunset. Main question is how much recovery
occurs over southern half of central PA this evening, with
consensus that it will be hard to destablize sufficiently to
support intense convection. Showers and isold tsra should move
across those areas late this evening through around midnight
with decreasing activity after midnight.

As the frontal zone sags southward this evening, we`ll be
watching heavy rain potential as southwest to northeast storm
motion and slow southward movement of the overall boundary may
bring much needed rain to many areas south of I-80. CAMs
indicate most numerous showers/storms settle south of the Mason
dixon line after 06z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Large scale subsidence and the arrival of much drier (less
humid) air behind the exiting cold front will lead to fair and
seasonable conditions Thursday. Surface high pressure building
over the region should result in fair and cool weather Thu night
with valley fog formation likely given air/water spreads 20-30
degrees. Partly cloudy and slightly warmer conditions are
likely Friday, as low pwats persist over PA and a return
southerly flow develops as the surface high passes off the
coast. Latest model data suggests some showers and storms may
develop Friday night over the western portion of the forecast
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Latest medium range guidance is showing an unusual lack of
spread among its members, all of which track a surface low
north of PA Saturday, with a trailing cold front coming through
Sat night into early Sunday. The lack of spread with regards to
timing of the front, combined with progged GEFS pwats of
+2-3SD, supports an increasing confidence in showers/tsra
Saturday. A leading warm front could produce showers/tsra as
early as Friday night and a slowing cold front could cause
convection to linger into Sunday, mainly over the southeast
counties. However, ensemble plumes indicate the most widespread
convection should occur Sat afternoon and evening.

There is some potential for severe wx Saturday PM, as decent
mid level flow overspreads an increasingly moist warm sector.
Ensemble plumes currently indicate moderate capes in the 1000
J/kg range and model 0-6km shear is in the 35-40kt range.
If the cold front slows enough, severe wx would also be possible
across the eastern edge of the forecast area Sunday PM.

Latest EPS and GEFS both support fair weather with near to
slightly below normal temps and low humidity early next week
associated with high pressure building east from the Grt Lks. A
seasonably cool and dry start to July!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Storms that moved across northern and central sections of the
state have exited to the east. However, southern PA is still
relatively unstable and additional storms are moving through PIT
now and LBE soon. The storms are expected to hold together at
least until they get into JST and perhaps AOO. The wind gusts
across the PIT metro area are into the 30s and 40s. So, we have
pegged the gusts at 35KT at PBZ for 1 hr (roughly 02-03Z) and
25KT about an hour later at AOO. These storms could weaken some
as they move to the east, but will hold together until they get
close to MDT/LNS.

Winds behind the storms will get light over the NW and (rather
widespread) fog and/or stratus is expected to develop in the
Alleghenies. We have brought BFD and JST into LIFR around
06-08Z time frame, with these conditions lasting past sunrise
at those sites. Downslope and some wind will probably keep
IPT/UNV/AOO from getting as bad (low) of conditions overnight.
But, some IFR is possible at those locations, too - but only a
50% chc at this point. It has rained, but the wind won`t be as
light at those 3 locations. The rain ending later at MDT and LNS
will give them a 30% chc at fog bad enough to get to IFR. But,
the wind/downslope will keep us from mentioning IFR at those 2
locations overnight/early AM.

The wind picks up in the morning everywhere, and ends any flight
category reductions at all sites, slowest over JST, of course.
VFR then rules thru the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Fri...Generally VFR.

Sat-Sun...Thunderstorm impacts possible.

Mon...Generally VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Dangelo