416
FNUS28 KWNS 252046
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 031200Z

The potential for critical fire weather conditions will generally
remain low through the extended period, though at least low-end fire
concerns are anticipated later this week and over the upcoming
weekend. The upper ridge over the south-central CONUS is forecast to
gradually de-amplify through the end of the work week, allowing for
more amplified upper waves to propagate across the northern CONUS.
This will introduce precipitation chances to much of the Pacific
Northwest and Great Basin where fuels have been relatively dry.
However, strong low-level winds associated with successive upper
waves may support dry/windy conditions across the northern Great
Basin wherever rainfall accumulations are minimal.

...D3/Thursday - Northeast NV to eastern ID....
An upper-level trough is noted in afternoon GOES imagery approaching
the Pacific Northwest coast. The primary trough axis (and associated
mid-level jet max) will likely be traversing northern ID/western MT
around peak heating on D3/Thu. Diurnal mixing should facilitate
downward mixing of the stronger flow to the surface, resulting in
areas of elevated, to perhaps critical, fire weather conditions.
Ensemble guidance continues to show the best potential for fire
concerns across northeast NV into the Snake River Plain of eastern
ID, though elevated to critical conditions may emerge across
southern NV into northwest AZ/southwest UT (though fuel status is
not as receptive as compared to locations further north/northwest).
One limiting factor to the fire potential is any rainfall that can
accumulate in the preceding 24 hours. This concern, along with a
steady, but fairly modest, signal for critical conditions precludes
higher risk probabilities.

...D5/Saturday into D6/Sunday - Great Basin...
Deterministic and ensemble solutions suggest an initially
low-amplitude perturbation will deepen as it migrates across the
Pacific Northwest over the upcoming weekend. A deepening surface low
across the Great Basin on D5/Saturday will likely induce breezy
southerly winds across southern to central NV and western UT. Dry
air advecting northward from the Mojave desert region should support
areas of dry/windy conditions. Stronger winds are anticipated on
Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Dry/windy conditions
should overspread much of eastern NV/western UT into southwest WY.
Although spread is noted among deterministic solutions, ensemble
guidance suggests D6/Sun will see the highest potential for critical
fire weather conditions, warranting 40% risk probabilities. While
fuels are currently drying across this region, rain chances in the
coming days may mitigate the overall fire threat.

..Moore.. 06/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$