126
FNUS28 KWNS 271933
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 051200Z

Confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions remains
limited through the extended period, though some fire weather
concerns are anticipated over the upcoming weekend across the Great
Basin as an upper trough (recently noted over the northeast Pacific
in water-vapor imagery) approaches the West Coast. Heading into next
week, upper-level ridging is anticipated over the West, which may
lead to a period of relatively weak winds, but warm/dry conditions
favorable for curing fuels. Elsewhere across the CONUS, recent
rainfall and/or precipitation chances should limit critical fire
weather potential.

...D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday - Great Basin...
Surface pressure falls are anticipated across central NV on D3/Sat
afternoon ahead of the approaching upper trough. Increasing
southerly flow emanating out of the Mojave desert should advect dry
air northward into eastern NV into western UT and support areas of
dry/windy conditions. Ensemble guidance continues to show only a
modest signal for critical fire weather conditions, but most
solutions suggest winds approaching 15 mph are likely with RH in the
teens. This dry air mass will continue to spread northeast into
northern UT and southwest WY by D4/Sun afternoon. A consolidating
cyclone in the northern High Plains should bolster gradient winds
across eastern NV into UT and WY ahead of an approaching cold front.
The anticipation of a deepening cyclone, combined with at least one
preceding day of warm/dry weather, lends higher confidence in the
potential for critical fire weather conditions for Sunday afternoon.
However, much of the risk area has recently received rainfall and/or
may see rainfall over the next 24 hours. As such, fuel dryness may
be modulated to some degree. This concern precludes higher risk
probabilities, but rainfall and fuel trends will continue to be
monitored.

Beyond D4/Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions may emerge each
day across the northern Great Basin as a zonal flow regime becomes
established. However, confidence in critical conditions is too
limited for additional risk probabilities.

..Moore.. 06/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$