064
ACUS48 KWNS 150857
SWOD48
SPC AC 150856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
For the period, a strong upper ridge is forecast to remain over the
East. An upper trough will move into the northern Plains on
Tuesday/D4 and Wednesday/D5, with most of the energy moving into
eastern Canada thereafter. To the west, only a weak upper trough is
forecast.

Thunderstorms will be possible from MN southwestward into the
central Plains on Tuesday/D4 along a cold front, and some severe
threat appears likely as the stronger midlevel southwesterlies
extend from MN into NE. Instability will begin to be limited by
warming temperatures aloft, but ample low-level moisture will remain
ahead off the cold front with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common.
Front-parallel flow and a progressive cold front will likely yield
areas of damaging wind potential, and a 15% area has been introduced
near the surface low over northern Minnesota.

Severe storms chances are forecast to lessen by Wednesday/D5 over
the Plains/Upper MS Valley as the stronger winds aloft shift out of
the area.

..Jewell.. 06/15/2024