236
ACUS48 KWNS 310841
SWOD48
SPC AC 310840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough will likely be moving through far northwestern
Ontario early Monday morning, with an attendant surface low tracking
just ahead of the shortwave. An associated cold front is forecast to
push eastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Modest
buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Thunderstorms
are also possible farther south into the central Plains and Mid MS
Valley as low-level moisture advects northward, with the outflow
from Sunday`s storms potentially returning north as a warm front.
Complexity to this convective evolution limits predictability at
this range.

Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a strong
northern-stream shortwave trough will progress through the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest on D5/Tuesday, accompanied by cold
mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead
of this system. Boundary-parallel flow suggested by the ECMWF would
favor a relatively slow storm motion and limited severe potential,
while the more progressive GFS has more westerly flow. Some severe
appears possible, but predictability is too low to introduce any
areas with this outlook.

Guidance then shows notable variability on how this wave
progress/evolves on D6/Wednesday through D8/Friday, with this
variability keeping predictability low.

..Mosier.. 05/31/2024