483
FXUS63 KDDC 291600
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak MCS will be possible this evening into the overnight hours.
The strongest storms will be capable of producing hail and strong
winds.

- Temperatures near 100 return early next week.

- Additional MCS`s will be possible through the mid to long term
  forecast. The challenge is where these storms will trek each
  day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A few lingering thunderstorms will roll along the northern counties
of the CWA early this morning bringing heavy rain, gusty winds, and
possibly hail. Breezy northeast to easterly winds are then
expected today as a frontal boundary slides into the Southern
Plains. HREF probabilities show up to a 50 percent chance of
winds exceeding 30 mph from late morning into early afternoon. A
few mid level clouds will be possible due to the ample moisture
and upslope winds but little to no precipitation is expected.
Thunderstorm are expected to form across southeastern Colorado
in the late afternoon then congeal into a weak MCS as they slide
into southwest Kansas this evening into the overnight hours. A
few of these storms may be strong with hail and strong winds
being the main concern. Otherwise expect an increase in
cloudiness. Weaker showers and thunderstorms are expected behind
this complex and continue into Sunday morning. Activity will
dwindle by the afternoon with decreasing cloudiness throughout
the remainder of the day. In addition, winds Sunday will curl to
the southeast by the afternoon. As for temperatures, highs
today are expected to range from the mid 80s along the I-70
corridor to low 90s across south central Kansas. Lows tonight
will dip into the 60s with highs tomorrow in the 80s.

Ensembles continue to depict an early summer time pattern through
the remainder of the forecast with an upper level high south of the
area and an upper level shortwave moving through the northern United
States. Weak disturbances will move in between these two features
causing multiple rounds of MCS`s across the Central and Northern
Plains. The main challenge will be the placement and timing of these
storms. As of now, the best chance of measurable precipitation looks
to be Tuesday and Wednesday night but this could change as we
progress into the future. As for temperatures, highs will approach
to exceed 100 degrees Monday and Tuesday before decreasing into the
upper 80s to mid 90s for the remainder of the week. Lows will
meander around the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Think that Colorado storms will mainly stay across the Colorado border
this evening. Attention then turns to the overnight period. WAA/elevated
showers and storms are expected across the terminals though the overnight.
Will include VCTS/CB groups in the TAFs to account for this activity.
Locally reduced cigs down to IFR or MVFR will be possible as lower
cigs linger through the morning hours. Winds will be NE to E 5-15
kt.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden