850
FXUS63 KDDC 032241
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
541 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A 20 to 40 percent chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
  tonight, mainly near the Colorado Border and west/north of
  Garden City. Main hazard will be strong winds, hail and
  locally heavy rainfall.

- A break in the heat can be expected across western Kansas
  Friday through at least early next week. Highs during this
  time frame will be in the 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

This morning`s ensemble models are in good agreement and had
minimal run to run differences over the past few days. They
indicate that an upper level trough, located over the Central
Rockies earlier today, will move across the West Central High
Plains tonight. This first upper wave, based on SPC Meso page
will be preceded by a weaker upper wave, as evidenced by SPC
Meso Analysis 700mb to 400mb Differential Vorticity. This first
upper wave is currently enhancing convection over southwest
Kansas as of 1pm this Wednesday afternoon, as the minimal CIN
erodes. The storms developing through late day are not expected
to be severe, but several locations, mainly east of Highway 283,
could see isolated rainfall totals between 1/2 and 1 inch from
the isolated steadier and heavier showers.

The better chance for strong or severe thunderstorms (20-40%)
will accompany the more significant upper level trough
approaching western Kansas early tonight based on the SREF
80-90% chance for 0-6km shear to be >40 knots and cooling aloft
that will enhance mid level instability. Ensembles also suggests
these storms will weaken as they move east across western Kansas
sunset but how quickly this will occur it is still unknown.
However, conditions still look favorable after 7 pm for
locations near the Colorado border and especially west and north
of the Garden City area for isolated hail of one inch or
greater, along with strong gusty winds of 60-65 mph. These
storms will also be capable of producing heavy rainfall, which
may result in some minor water issues.

As the upper level trough passes the Central Plains late
tonight/early Thursday, thunderstorms will taper off from
northwest to southeast as a cold front crosses southwest Kansas.
The extent of cooling on Thursday is currently unclear due to
uncertainty in the timing of the clearing skies. A bit of July
sun can quickly warm temperatures over a short duration so have
decided to stay close to current guidance with areas south of
the Arkansas River having a 60% chance for highs to be greater
than 85F. A 50% chance for highs of 90F or higher will be
possible in the Pratt and Medicine Lodge areas.

From Friday through the upcoming weekend, an upper level ridge
will build along the west coast of the United States as an upper
trough develops/depends across the Wester Great Lakes Region,
leading to a northwesterly flow across the Rockies and central
United States. Multiple upper waves are forecast to move along
this developing northwest flow towards western Kansas. Each of
these upper waves will bring a chance for late day and overnight
thunderstorms. In addition to several chances for precipitation
this weekend, this northwest flow pattern will favor keeping
temperatures a little cooler than usual for this time of year,
with highs in the 80s to low 90s instead of near 100. Confidence
is high (over 70%) regarding the trend in cooler temperatures
and increased precipitation chances from Friday through early
next week. However, the exact details on temperatures and
timing/local of precipitation remains uncertain due to the
variability in the strength of the developing upper ridge and
the timings of the subtle upper waves embedded in the northwest
flow, which models often struggle to resolve accurately at that
far out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
mid-evening. Thunderstorms developing in southeast Colorado will
spread eastward into southwest Kansas overnight, potentially
affecting the vicinity of all TAF sites generally after 03-05Z.
Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions will continue. Light southeast
winds are expected to persist through early Thursday as a lee
side trough of low pressure remains anchored near and along the
Colorado border.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson