Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
707 FXXX12 KWNP 241231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 24 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels with R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events observed. Region 3723 (S19E61, Dso/beta) produced an M9.3/1n flare at 23/1301 UTC; the largest event of the period. Several eruptions originated from Region 3712 (S26, L=168) after 24/0130 UTC and the background x-ray flux increased to M-levels in the hours following. Region 3712, along with Regions 3713 (S14W81, Ekc/beta-gamma) and 3716 (N09W88, Eao/beta), rotated out of full view on the W limb. Slight growth was observed in Region 3720 (S06E18, Dai/beta) and new spots were seen near the E limb at S20. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. Other activity included a filament eruption near S50W09 at 24/0115 UTC, and another near N25W15 at 24/0147 UTC, although neither event produced Earth-directed CMEs. A large CME associated with flare activity from Region 3712, and first visible in LASCO C2 off the SW at 24/0248 UTC, is not expected to be Earth-directed. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely on 24-25 Jun, with a chance for M-class flares on 26 Jun. There is a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare (R3/Strong) on 24-25 Jun as Regions 3712, 3713, and 3716 transit the W limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 24-26 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 24 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters gradually returned to background levels following possible CIR effects early in the period. Total field strength ranged from 2-8 nT, Bz varied between +8/-5 nT, and solar wind speeds decreased from 360 to 300 km/s. The phi angle was predominately negative throughout the period. .Forecast... Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to prevail on 24-26 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled due to possible CIR effects. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail over 24-26 Jun.